3 things must go right to make projected KC Royals lineup and rotation work

Speculation about who will bat where, and which five pitchers will make up the starting rotation, continues to swirl around the Kansas City Royals as they prepare to begin full-squad spring training workouts on February 17.

MLB.com weighed in recently with its notions of how manager Matt Quatraro's batting order and rotation could look, and nothing about them was particularly surprising.

KC Royals Lineup

1. Jonathan India, 2B
2. Bobby Witt, Jr., SS
3. Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
4. Salvador Perez, C
5. MJ Melendez, LF
6. Hunter Renfroe, RF
7. Michael Massey, DH
8. Maikel Garcia, 3B
9. Kyle Isbel, CF

KC Royals Rotation

1. Cole Ragans
2. Seth Lugo
3. Michael Wacha
4. Michael Lorenzen
5. Kris Bubic

Glaringly obvious to even the most casual followers of the Royals is how little MLB.com believes this season's lineup might differ from last year's — save for newcomer Jonathan India leading off and playing second base, their 2025 lineup is fundamentally the same as 2024's. The Opening Day starting rotation, though, is a different matter, with Michael Lorenzen and Kris Bubic bringing up the back end.

How accurate MLB.com's ideas are remains to be seen, but they may not be far off. Here are three things (among others) that could make them work.

MJ Melendez must have a breakout season at the plate

The Royals' Melendez project is far from complete. Almost from the day they called him up for his major league debut early in the 2022 season, their plan to convert him from catcher to outfielder, and their commitment to it, has been clear.

The results, however, leave much to be desired. Yes, Melendez hits with some power, averaging 17 home runs per season, but his .206 average and .273 OBP in 2024 aren't even close to what the club needs.

MLB.com has Melendez batting fifth, right behind India, Bobby Witt, Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez, the club's four big guns who last season had to shoulder too much of the club's offensive responsibility. The Royals need reliability in the five-hole, and only Melendez's power arguably justifies him filling it.

But if things change — if Melendez's bat somehow regains the heat it had in 2021, when he slashed .288/.386/.625 and drove in 103 runs in the minors and captured the coveted Joe Bauman Award for pacing all minor leaguers with 41 home runs — he'll prove to be an excellent choice to bat fifth.

Still, it's a big, big "if".

The KC Royals rotation must avoid big injuries

Kansas City's rotation was one of its best since the turn of the century. Seth Lugo went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA; Michael Wacha was 13-8 with a 3.35 ERA; and Cole Ragans' 11-9, 3.14 ERA in his first full big league season helped him land his recent pre-arbitration eligibility contract extension. Alec Marsh and Brady Singer both won nine times, but Singer lost 13 and is gone to Cincinnati as the price the club paid for India.

The 2024 rotation owes much of its success to overall excellent health, something the Royals will need again this season if they're to improve on last year's American League Division Series appearance. But with spring training just a week old, are there reasons for concern?

Perhaps. After arriving from the Texas Rangers via the Walter Pennington trade deadline deal, Michael Lorenzen, MLB.com's choice for the fourth rotation spot, was sailing along with a 1.85 ERA, 2-0, five-start record before a hamstring strain knocked him out until late September. That he managed to pitch twice before the playoffs and two more times during them suggests he's fully recovered and ready to go.

Wacha missed three weeks in June with a foot fracture but came back to post a 9-3, 2.74 post-injury record. That kind of work signals he's free from any lingering effects of his 2024 injury.

Health-wise, the Royals' rotation was extremely lucky last season. The club will need that good fortune to continue this year. If it doesn't, Kansas City could be back on the outside of the postseason looking in.

Kris Bubic's transition to the rotation must go well

The success Bubic had in the bullpen last year was a pleasant surprise and big boost to the Royals' even more surprising resurgence. In his first season as a full-time reliever, Bubic pitched 27 times with a 2.67 ERA, 1.022 WHIP, 32.2 K%, and 4.1 BB%.

Now, though, the Royals are returning him to the rotation — or at least trying to — and MLB.com thinks he could be the club's fifth starter. That he's 9-27 as a big league starter renders the switch dubious and doesn't bode particularly well for its success or MLB.com's projection.

But if Bubic's return to starting somehow works out as well as his bullpen performance did last season, he'll be a fine addition to a starting staff that must succeed if the Royals are to make their second straight playoff appearance. And like the rest of the rotation, he must stay healthy — remember, he had Tommy John surgery in 2023.