How does Guardians Opening Day starter stack up against KC Royals' ace?

It seems somewhat teasing to have the Kansas City Royals start their on Thursday, March 27, then have an off day, then get right back into the normal regular season drumbeat on March 29. To fans, it's like the league saying, "Hey, here is the best your team has to offer, but oh wait! An off day, no baseball."

Still, there's no question that Royals fans are excited to see the team match up against their division rival, the Cleveland Guardians, next week.

KC Royals and Guardians will send out their best arms for Opening Day

When the Royals kick off the 2025 campaign, they’ll do so on their home turf, and against a big divisional rival. The Guardians — last season's AL Central champions with a 92-69 record who reached the ALCS — aren’t exactly a flashy pick to repeat as postseason contenders, let alone win the division, but championships aren’t won in the offseason.

The Guardians will set their season’s tone against the Royals — who also reached the playoffs last year — and they’ve chosen right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee to lead the charge.

The Guardians needed someone in their rotation to step up last season after ace Shane Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery following just his second start. Bibee answered the call, emerging as a reliable anchor atop Cleveland’s rotation, and he now enters 2025 as the clear choice to start Opening Day. The 26-year-old right-hander becomes just the third Guardians Opening Day starter since 2015, joining Corey Kluber and Shane Bieber, both on whom are Cy Young winners that combined for 10 consecutive Opening Day starts.

How did Tanner Bibee perfom last season?

Bibee was a workhorse in 2024, posting a 12-8 record with a 3.47 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 187 strikeouts over 173⅔ innings in 31 starts. He was the only Cleveland starter with more than 30 outings and one of just four with over 20 starts. Bibee emerged as a true stopper for the Guardians — the pitcher they could count on to deliver six-plus solid innings each outing, a crucial piece for a club that leaned heavily on one of the league’s top bullpens throughout the season.

Bibee made his MLB debut in 2023 and has since emerged as one of Cleveland’s best starters. He has five career starts against the Royals, posting a 3.67 ERA and a 1.259 WHIP in those games. Unfortunately, his best performances against Kansas City have come at Kauffman Stadium. Last season, Bibee recorded two quality starts on the road, limiting the Royals to six hits over 12 innings.

If fans check Tanner Bibee's Baseball Savant page, they will notice that while he may not excel in every elite metric, he does plenty of things well. His walk and strikeout rates are well above league average, and he's boosted his whiff rate to the league's 61st percentile. The only area where he falls short is in inducing groundballs and limiting damage on his four-seam fastball.

Bibee has a solid secondary pitch arsenal, featuring one of the best cutters seen from a starter. However, he uses his four-seam fastball to set up that cutter, along with his slider and changeup. He consistently keeps his fastball high in the zone — often in what many call the "nitro zone.". Hitters posted a 137 wRC+ against his four-seam last season, up from 108 wRC+ in 2023, and batters' hard-hit rate against that pitch was 46.3%, nearly 10 percentage points above league average.

If batters aren’t aggressive early, Bibee’s offspeed pitches truly shine. His cutter, with extra movement toward the glove side and less rise than a typical cutter, can really confound hitters — looking more like a slider to the naked eye. And don’t worry, Bibee also has an excellent slider. He only threw it 6.9% of the time, but on that pitch he recorded a 29.9% whiff rate and a 34.4% strikeout rate. Every pitcher needs a reliable get-out pitch, and Bibee arguably has two or three.

Cole Ragans will duel with Tanner Bibee on Opening Day

But the beauty of Opening Day is that both teams showcase their best. With lefty Cole Ragans taking the ball for the Royals, Kansas City fans can feel confident about their odds. Ragans had an impressive 2024 season, going 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 223 strikeouts over 186⅓ innings. The former Texas Rangers first-round pick finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting and became the first left-handed pitcher in Royals history to record 200 strikeouts in a season.

Oddly enough, the Guardians gave Ragans fits in 2024. He started two contests against Cleveland, allowing six earned runs across 8⅔ innings. Kansas City split those starts, but his August 26 outing was particularly uncharacteristic with four walks to four strikeouts. However, Ragans produces when the lights are brightest, and he will undoubtedly bring his best to the mound in front of a sold-out Kauffman crowd.

Which starter has the edge: Cole Ragans to Tanner Bibee?

On paper, the Opening Day edge has to favor Ragans. The Guardians have roughed him up in previous starts, but a fresh Ragans in his home stadium is hard to bet against. Still, Royals fans should know that while Bibee may not have the same name recognition as Ragans, the Guardians' starter is certainly no slouch. No matter Thursday's result, this will be a hotly contested matchup that hopefully ends in a Royals victory.