Why Drew Waters could make it easier for the KC Royals to demote MJ Melendez

Jac Caglianone, the biggest name and biggest star in the Kansas City Royals' minor league inventory, battered Tulsa pitching over the weekend. Making his much anticipated Double-A debut in Northwest Arkansas' three-game season-opening series against the Drillers, Caglianone drove in seven runs, hammered a home run, a double, and three singles, walked twice, and scored four runs. And when the dust had cleared, Caglianone headed for Springdale and Arvest Park, where the Naturals begin the home portion of the new season Tuesday, slashing .385/.412/.692 with a 1.104 OPS.

But Caglianone, MLB Pipeline's top-ranked Kansas City prospect, isn't the only Royals minor leaguer exploding at the plate. One level above him at Triple-A Omaha, outfielder Drew Waters' numbers are even better than Caglianone's — he's slashing .455/.556/.909 with a 1.465 OPS. He's homered twice, including once while hitting for the cycle against Louisville April 2, and has seven RBI in six games.

What might such torrid, albeit early, eye-opening starts mean for Caglianone and Waters? Cags' won't tempt the Royals to jump him up to Kansas City — such a move would be premature and ill-advised for a player with only 129 professional regular season at-bats. But hitting so well just could put Waters back on the path to Kauffman Stadium ... and MJ Melendez back on the road to Omaha.

Why Drew Waters could replace MJ Melendez with the KC Royals

Waters is swinging a big bat so far, but that isn't the only reason general manager and J.J. Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro might find bringing him up, and sending Melendez down, good moves to make. Melendez is once again struggling at the plate — after going 1-for-3 in the Royals 4-2 Monday victory over Minnesota, he's 3-for-23, with just one extra-base hit and no RBI, and his miserable .130/.286/.174 line speaks volumes.

Unfortunately, those numbers aren't surprising. Despite a promising minor league career highlighted by the 41 homers he hit and 103 runs he drove in between Double and Triple-A in 2021, Melendez is batting only .219 since breaking in with the Royals in 2022 and strikes out too much. And sooner or later, the 17 home runs he was averaging coming into this season won't be enough to outweigh his offensive shortcomings.

But there's another reason Kansas City should consider demoting Melendez. Playing and working in Triple-A will allow him to focus on the stance changes and other offensive adjustments he's making in an environment where on-going refinements and retooling fit better than they do amid the pressure of the majors.

Is Drew Waters ready to return to the KC Royals?

His hot bat suggests so, but re-promoting Waters won't come without naysayers. He's yet to carry his good minor league hitting (.285/.356/.461 with 61 homers in 612 games) to the majors, where in parts of three seasons he's hitting .229 with 13 homers. Those numbers aren't what the Royals wanted when, in the summer of 2022, they traded a Competitive Balance draft pick to get the outfielder who was then Atlanta's No. 1 prospect.

That unfortunate story may repeat itself if Waters and Melendez switch teams. The Royals could also try Tyler Tolbert, the swift, promising prospect they recently called up to replace injured Dairon Blanco, in left field, but Tolbert may be better suited for the high-leverage pinch-running and bench roles he's presently playing.

But at this moment in the season, when Melendez isn't hitting at all (neither is Hunter Renfroe, but the $7.5 million salary they're paying him this year means the Royals will part with him later rather than sooner), the time might be ripe for giving Waters another shot at a regular outfield spot.