Will this speedy KC Royals prospect squeeze himself onto the Opening Day roster?

By now, Tyler Tolbert knows the major league spring training drill. He ought to — this year's non-roster invitation to the Kansas City Royals' camp gave him his fourth consecutive trip to Surprise, Arizona, and another chance to display his wares against big leaguers and prospects alike. Never, though, has he cracked the Opening Day roster, and never has he played in the majors.

But unlike past springs, Tolbert now has a chance to break camp with the Royals. How good that chance is remains secreted in the club's behind-the-scenes meetings as they prepare to leave Surprise after their March 22 Cactus League finale against the Texas Rangers. The roster picture may be more clear after that contest, and even sharper after the Royals and Rangers play two exhibition games in Arlington before Kansas City hosts the Cleveland Guardians for both teams' March 27 regular season opener.

So can Tolbert survive the Royals' final roster cuts and punch his ticket to Opening Day in Kansas City?

The KC Royals should think seriously about Tyler Tolbert

Although he's never played in a regular season major league game, Tolbert is making a strong case for his first big league roster spot. After going 2-for-3 with a double in the 10-1 drubbing his club suffered at the Athletics' hands on March 21, Tolbert was slashing .324/.366/.568 in 18 Cactus League appearances. His 10 RBI had him deadlocked with Hunter Renfroe and Harold Castro for the team lead and his seven steals were better than any other Royal in camp.

Those are, of course, spring numbers to which some reservations necessarily apply. But they're also consistent with the formidable set of skills he's brought to the organization's minor league teams and could bring to Kansas City.

Despite his disappointing .141 average in 27 games at Triple-A Omaha last season, Tolbert hit a far more respectable .260 with a decent .339 OBP at Double-A Northwest Arkansas. The year before, he enjoyed a breakout campaign at Northwest Arkansas when he hit .276 with a career-high 10 home runs and career-best 50 RBI, a performance that earned him the George Brett Hitter of the Year award as the KC system's best at the plate. Tolbert is also the type of versatile player the Royals value, as is suggested by the time he's spent at every defensive position except first base, pitcher, and catcher.

His most obvious strength, though, is his speed on the bases. Those 10 Cactus League steals he has this spring only scratch the surface — Tolbert swiped 48 bases last season, and a career-high 60 at High-A Quad Cities in 2022. He stole at least 50 times in two other campaigns, and the career-low 28 steals he posted in 2019, his first professional season, are nothing to scoff at.

And remarkably, he's been caught stealing in only 16 of his 257 attempts.

Tolbert, then, could give the Royals disruptive speed on the basepaths, valuable speed in the outfield, and serviceable defense almost everywhere on the field.

After Kansas City's March 21 acquisition of outfielder Mark Canha, though, adding Tolbert to the Opening Day roster could be difficult. Space on the Royals' bench will be tight — so tight, in fact, that only one spot will be left if Cavan Biggio and Dairon Blanco make the club. Tolbert would then have to get past Nick Loftin, Harold Castro, and perhaps another player or two.

Blanco's presence may also complicate Tolbert's chances. Both players' upsides are almost identical. But at the same time, can an organization so historically committed to speed ever have enough?

We're about to find out.