The Athletic makes bold Royals trade deadline prediction KC should adopt, but won't

There are two factors that could hold the Kansas City Royals back at the upcoming trade deadline. First, trades cannot happen if the market does not emerge, but setting the foundation for marketing Royals players is one of the many jobs the front office takes on. Second, the Royals could place almost too much emphasis on 2027, and that is something general manager J.J. Picollo touched on earlier this summer. Fans never want to see their team move on from a player too soon or see Kansas City on the losing end of a trade, but holding on to controllable players in the name of next season is a gamble that carries immediate pushback and long-term ramifications that could set the Royals back once again.

One of the titular players Kansas City could hold on to in the name of 2027 performance is starting pitcher Michael Wacha. The 35-year-old righty just earned his first All-Star selection in more than a decade and has been one of the AL's better workhorse pitchers. He may not be a strikeout savant or blaze fastballs past the competition, but his command and elite changeup get him plenty of outs and help the Royals win more often than not. He has been an important part of the past three seasons in Kansas City, but the aging curve is coming and his sustained success should make him a popular starting pitching trade candidate in a somewhat limited market.

The Athletic recently put out trade deadline predictions for all 30 MLB clubs, with the Royals popping up a few times. Zack Meisel predicted that Royals outfielder Lane Thomas would return to the Cleveland Guardians, while Jesús Cano listed Wacha as a trade fit with the Atlanta Braves' pursuit of controllable starting pitching. But it was former Kansas City Star writer Andy McCullough who had the boldest Royals-related prediction: that Kansas City would deal not only Wacha but 2024 AL Cy Young runner-up Seth Lugo this summer, and with a very active approach.

"When Kansas City had a chance to move Lugo at last year’s deadline, the team opted to extend him through 2027. But the past two seasons have been a bust for the franchise, and they need to restock the farm system. Lugo is 36 and Wacha just turned 35. The team should be aggressive in trying to deal them."

Andy McCullough, The Athletic

McCullough put it pretty concisely, but can Royals fans disagree with anything he said?

Royals could take over starting market if they deal two veterans at trade deadline

The Royals bet on Lugo bouncing back into his 2024 form, but the veteran's performance immediately following his two-year extension was painful to watch. He made seven starts following the July 28 deal, recording only one quality start, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out, and wearing an 8.35 ERA after carrying a 2.95 ERA in the 19 previous starts.

How would fans describe the current version of Lugo? On one hand, he has 13 quality starts in his 22 outings, one of the most expansive pitching arsenals in the game, and solid command of all his pitches. But on the other hand, he is one of the league's worst qualified pitchers at limiting home runs, is allowing a brutal 44.5% hard-hit rate, and has posted a negative win probability added in both 2025 and 2026. Add in the aging curve plus one more year, and there is reasonable concern about Lugo playing out his contract in Kansas City.

A lot of those same concerns apply somewhat to Wacha as well. I have always been supportive of what he has done in Kansas City. He was Mr. Consistency over the past three seasons, posting back-to-back 3.0-plus fWAR seasons for the first time in his long career while wearing a Royals uniform. But if you compare him to the other high-innings AL arms, Wacha is getting by on limiting barrels while still allowing massive contact.

There is a significant gap between his real-world 3.60 ERA and 4.27 xERA in 2026. Batters do not swing and miss or chase against Wacha much, but he limits walks and is the best Royals starter at stranding the baserunners he does allow. He does so many things well, but there are too many red flags for competent Royals fans to ignore.

McCullough's prediction would unburden the Royals from any further Wacha or Lugo decline, but it will come at a cost. Neither player will likely fetch a premium prospect package unless Kansas City is willing to eat some of the existing contract, and not getting a strong return for either would similarly ignite the fanbase.

But the reality is that if Kansas City trusts they can once again find free agent solutions ahead of 2027, then do not trade scared at the deadline. Follow McCullough's advice and be aggressive. Aggressively try to right the Royals ship that is already beached in 2026.

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