Seth Lugo's strong second-half start should have Royals rethinking reluctance on trading him

The Kansas City Royals are nearing the point where they'll need to decide who goes and who stays as they likely prepare for a trade deadline sale sitting 17 games below .500. Of the names that are most likely to move will be expiring contracts and potentially players in more volatile positions like relievers. This scenario is largely the case because the goal appears to be for them to attempt to contend again in 2027, meaning potential prime trade targets like Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo are reportedly too valuable for them to move.

However, Lugo could be making it hard on the Royals to withhold trading him. While he's been on a downward trajectory overall since his peak Cy Young runner-up season with them back in 2024, he's experienced a bit of a midseason resurgence post-All-Star break, which will only better his trade value around a week-and-a-half out from the trade deadline.

Before the All-Star break he was struggling, tossing a pair of outings under five innings with eight earned runs combined between them. However, he's opened his second-half of the season admirably. He started with a strong six-inning outing against the Padres where he surrendered just one earned and one unearned run off four hits. He followed that up with a seven-inning masterclass on Wednesday against the Giants, giving up just three runs but off only three hits with five strikeouts.

For the season, his 4.36 ERA looks respectable but is rather pedestrian, especially compared to his 3.00 ERA two seasons ago. At 36-years-old perhaps his trade prospects aren't the highest, but recency bias is always a thing, so his most recent outings paired with his solid career track record could make him an intriguing candidate at the moment if the Royals were to trade him.

Royals really should be more open to trading Seth Lugo at upcoming trade deadline

The theory behind the Royals wanting to keep the likes of Lugo and Wacha makes complete sense. Both are under contract next season in a rotation that could be without ace Cole Ragans for most of it and impending free agent Kris Bubic for all of it. They need capable starting arms and these are two guaranteed ways to achieve that without spending any additional money - which for a small market team makes a ton of difference.

It's also very understandable why they are enamored with the thought of keeping Wacha. He just broke an 11-year All-Star drought and appears to be on the verge of a fifth-straight sub-4.00 ERA season well within the latter years if his career. He doesn't blow hitters away by any means, but he's consistent and that's more valuable than some give credit for.

Their infatuation with Lugo makes less sense though. As mentioned earlier, he's regressed considerably since his near-Cy Young season two years ago. And his expected and underlying metrics are that much more underwhelming. He sits in the 10th percentile or lower in xERA and XBA and apart from a 66th percentile walk rate and 43rd percentile ground ball rate, the remainder of his advanced metrics sit amongst the bottom quarter of the league.

The fact he's managed to maintain a mid-to-low 4.00s ERA this season is remarkable. And the more he continues to get lucky and have outings like the two he's had to start the second-half of the season, the more it seems like a no-brainer the Royals should attempt to get the best return possible before his seemingly inevitable regression continues.

The Royals haven't indicated that a deal for Lugo is impossible, with Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic reporting earlier this month that they'd listen offers, but they would reportedly have to be "massive".

Getting a good return is one thing, but perhaps massive is too high for Lugo.

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