Should the KC Royals consider trading for a division rival's ace?

After re-signing to veteran Michael Wacha to a three-year deal at the start of the offseason, the Kansas City Royals had confirmed the top of their 2025 rotation would be fierce. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Wacha would return as one of the best 1-2-3 punches in MLB, but after trading away Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds, the Royals are left without a clear answer for the remaining two roles in the rotation.

On December 28, MLB Trade Rumors' Steve Adams suggested that instead of turning to internal options for both of the last two starting spots, the Royals may be interested in trading for a pitcher who is already very familiar with the AL Central — Minnesota Twins' ace Pablo López.

"AL Central teams like the (Royals) would surely throw their hats in the ring, though moving López within the division might be a bridge too far for Minnesota’s front office," Adams wrote.

Going into spring training, Kansas City has multiple pitchers contending for a spot in the rotation. Kris Bubic, who had a career-best season out of the bullpen in 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery the season prior, has been confirmed as a frontrunner, and Alec Marsh, who started the 2024 season in the Royals' rotation but was dropped after struggling with control issues, isn't far behind him. Daniel Lynch IV, Kyle Wright, and top prospect Noah Cameron are also possible contenders.

So will the Twins trade López, and if so, should the Royals consider targeting the 28-year-old ace?

Will the Twins trade Pablo López?

López was traded from the Miami Marlins — where he made his MLB debut in 2018 — to the Twins in January 2023, and subsequently signed a four-year, $73.5 million contract extension (effective from 2024) to stay in Minnesota through 2027.

In his first season with the Twins, López posted an 11-8 record with a 3.66 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 234 strikeouts in 194 innings of work (32 starts), earning the first All-Star selection of his career. He followed it up in 2024 with a 15-10 record, 4.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts in 185.1 innings (32 starts), and while his stats clearly dipped from the season prior, López's impressive 5.3% walk rate still ranked him in the 90th percentile of all qualified pitchers in MLB.

While the Twins have not publicly stated López is available for trade this winter,ESPN's Jeff Passan reported on December 10 that the team has had discussions on the topic.

"The Twins have listened on right-hander Pablo López," Passan wrote, "and if free agent pitching prices remain stratospheric, perhaps they'll go beyond the listening stage."

Trading away López would anger Minnesota's already frustrated fanbase, but it's certainly not out of the question, especially considering the Twins' need to cut payroll. After cutting ties with Diamond Sports Group during the bankruptcy debacle — which also impacted the Royals — the Twins' broadcasting rights remain uncertain, and the October news that the Pohlad family is considering selling the team has only further eliminated flexibility from Minnesota's already tight budget.

Should the KC Royals target Pablo López for their rotation?

López is owed $65 million over the remaining three years of his contract, which would make him the highest-paid pitcher on the Royals by far. Unless the Twins are prepared to eat a substantial chunk of his remaining salary, the chances of the Royals being open to taking on that sort of payroll are slim to none, especially after signing Wacha to a three-year, $51 million deal — the fourth-richest in franchise history — less than two months ago.

It's also worth noting that there are more urgent issues to be addressed on the Royals' roster than the starting rotation this winter, and if general manager J.J. Picollo had the flexibility to spend much more on payroll, he'd almost certainly put it towards acquiring a middle-of-the-order power bat, outfield support, or a relief arm. While the rotation's final two starters aren't yet locked in, the Royals have multiple internal options, all of whom are worth consideration.

Despite dipping stats in 2024, there's no denying that López is a fierce presence on the mound who has been a workhorse for the Twins over the last two seasons. Still, the Royals aren't in a position to take on his salary — nor would they likely be open to putting together a strong enough trade package to entice the Twins in the first place —  and even if they were, there are more pressing concerns to be dealt with before targeting external options for the rotation.