Royals Playoff Odds: KC's Wild Card chances still minuscule despite blazing-hot August run

There's no denying that the Kansas City Royals have been the hottest team in baseball recently. Entering Saturday's all-AL Central affair with the Cleveland Guardians, they've won 12 of their last 14 games to continue to build on what's been an overall impressive second half since the All-Star break. And their last two games have been a clear representation of the what they're capable of overall with a 13-2 offensive blowout in Toronto on Thursday followed by a 3-0 pitching showcase on Friday against the Guards.

However, as exciting as this stretch may be for the Royals faithful right now, especially after the brutal first half they had, it all still needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Because of that aforementioned first-half, the Royals still find themselves at 61-75 with 26 games remaining in the season. This means that just to get to .500, they'll still have to win 20 of their final 26 contests - all tall task for even the best of teams.

Now, based on how they've played so far, nothing is impossible as FanGraphs still gives them a ounce of life with a 0.1% chance to take home an AL Wild Card spot when all is said and done. And as it stands right now, amid a what's been a dreadful competitive showing for the American outside teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, just a single game over .500 is good enough for the final spot in October, meaning a .500 record could feasibly get it done.

That being said, 20-6 would be a perfect case scenario and nothing about the Royals season, outside of this recent hot stretch has been that. They've battled injury after injury with a starting rotation missing their ace in Cole Ragans alongside four key depth options, an All-Star third baseman in Maikel Garcia who's back on the IL and has struggled to even play the 73 games he's managed to this point, plus a rotating door of of other positions that've been simultaneously on the shelf at any given time. On top of that, whether it be injury or underperformance, areas like the bullpen have been simply atrocious for them for most of the year.

Royals remaining record may not matter anyways if Mariners have their playoff say

The biggest hurdle for Kansas City's playoff odds at the moment isn't their record, rather the fact that they still hold the third worst record in the American League. This means that even if they keep winning, seven other teams will have do them favors simultaneously by losing.

And the fact of the matter is, while the Royals may be able to leapfrog some teams and climb their way up the standings to a degree, other teams simply have an easier path forward. And there's no denying that one of the easiest paths forward to the final AL Wild Card spot runs through the Pacific Northwest in Seattle.

The Mariners may be a real disappointment themselves this season at 64-71 after being only a game away from reaching their first-ever World Series a year ago, but there's no denying that no team has an easier remaining strength of schedule than they do. The Mariners current remaining opposing win percentage sits at .433, 36 points higher than second place Toronto. This is due to Seattle having 17 remaining games combined against the Athletics, Angels and Rockies - the three worst teams in baseball.

This is why FanGraphs currently has them at a 33.5% of making the playoffs, despite only being 3.5 games better than the Royals. And even if that's because they have a better shot at winning their division rather than capturing a Wild Card berth (at a 27.1% chance to 6.3% chance respectively), the team their chasing in the West in Houston still has four games to close the season against the A's, making them a prime target to remain in their October slot as well.

Pair all this with the fact that alongside the Mariners, the Blue Jays, Twins, Tigers and Guardians all sit within the lower third of the league in strength of schedule as well, and it seems as though the Royals' valiant efforts are coming far too late.

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