3 huge 11th-hour trade gambles the KC Royals can't afford to take

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The MLB Trade Deadline market began to explode late Thursday night and, while their mid-July acquisition of reliever Hunter Harvey was for so long their only major move, the KC Royals joined the frenzied deal fray Monday morning when they surprisingly shipped hot pitching prospect Walter Pennington to Texas for Michael Lorenzen.

The deal eliminated Pennington as a potentially rich source of much-needed bullpen help, but in Lorenzen gives manager Matt Quatraro some valuable flexibility.

The move isn't without risk — Lorenzen isn't an overwhelming pitcher, and Pennington seemed destined for a long and successful career in Kansas City's pen — but teams roll the dice every time they make a deal.

Now, the risks are even higher for the Royals. The trade deadline expires at 5 p.m. CDT today, which means they can't use major league-level trades to enhance their playoff chances after that time; teams will demand more from them in these last few hours, and KC will be tempted to take more and bigger chances.

Here are three big risks (besides trading Bobby Witt Jr., which won't happen) this club simply can't afford to take between now and 5 p.m.

The Royals must not trade either of their catchers

Some teams need catching help, but Kansas City shouldn't provide it in exchange for stretch run pitching. The Royals' desperate needs for Salvador Perez's bat and defense behind the plate are obvious, and maintaining a playoff chase without their productive captain and leader would be almost impossible.

Moving Freddy Fermin should also be out of the question. Because he can hit — he's slashing .291/.341/.417 in 66 games — and his work behind the plate, including a 56% caught stealing rate, is so good — Fermin is one of the best backup catchers in the majors and the best KC has had in years. Those numbers, and Fermin's reliability, allow the Royals the luxury of reducing Perez's physical load, and probably prolonging his career, by playing him more at first and at DH.

What else do the Royals need to avoid?

Kansas City must not deal any of its starting rotation

Let's be clear: the Royals may want to add an arm, but they shouldn't subtract any, from a rotation that's contributed so heavily to their surprising success. The rotation has served the club well, so removing any of its pieces via a deadline trade or trades could seriously damage the club's legitimate postseason aspirations.

The numbers prove it.

Seth Lugo, who'll next pitch Thursday or Friday at Detroit, is tied with Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez and Detroit's Tarik Skubal for most wins (12) in the American League and he has the third-best ERA (2.66). Brady Singer has a 1.88 ERA in five July starts and is 7-6, 2.82 overall. Michael Wacha, also 7-6, is 3-1, 2.45 in his last six starts. Despite surrendering seven runs over his last two appearances, Cole Ragans has won three of his last five starts and stands 7-7 with a decent 3.37 ERA. And although he's struggled a bit recently, which helps explain his higher 4.71 ERA, Alec Marsh is 7-7.

Only Marsh is presently on the margins. If he falters, the Royals could slide Lorenzen into his spot or, if they don't pick up another starter before the deal deadline expires, shift to an opener-bulk slot or try Daniel Lynch IV, who's 7-0 at Omaha, again.

And finally...

The KC Royals must not shop their top prospects

If Kansas City had a legitimate shot at the 2024 World Series title, putting their two best prospects on the trade table might be defensible. But because this club has too many shortcomings to merit consideration as a serious championship contender, it needs to keep its most precious minor league assets off the trade deadline market and preserve them for the future. The temptation to move them for a big gain could be great, but too much harm could result. Now simply isn't the time.

Catcher Blake Mitchell, for example, shouldn't be in any trade conversations. Ranked No. 1 among Kansas City prospects by MLB Pipeline, Mitchell's first full professional season has been a good one — he's boasting a .393 OBP with 12 homers, 22 steals, and a .255 average for Single-A Columbia. He might make the jump to High-A Quad Cities before the season ends.

Mitchell was the Royals' top pick in last year's amateur draft.

The Royals recently rewarded pitcher Ben Kudrna, MLB Pipeline's No. 2 KC prospect, with a bump-up from Quad Cities to Double-A Northwest Arkansas. He had a nice 3.50 ERA and commendable 9.28 K/9 in 15 starts for the Fireflies, but has pitched only once so far for the Naturals, giving up three runs (one unearned) and striking out six in a 5.1 inning stint against Seattle Double-A affiliate Arkansas Saturday.

The Royals chose Kudrna in the second round of the 2021 draft.

Kansas City has no need to put either of their best two prospects on the block. Such moves are justified only when the stakes are higher than they are this season; the Royals can get to the playoffs without sacrificing Mitchell or Kudrna.

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