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2 KC Royals batters whose hot streaks will continue, 1 who will fade
The KC Royals suffered a roller-coaster month in June, including their first full losing month in 2024. An abysmal batting stretch from top to bottom significantly harmed this team's standing and prospects after the All-Star break. The team's performances were not ideal, but several individual hitters are on a roll. Let us look at which two hitters will keep their hot streaks going in the second half of the season and which will not.
Continue: OF Hunter Renfroe
Last 15 games: .333/.412/.667, 4 HR, 8 RBI
This time two months ago, I wondered if the Royals needed to move on from offseason acquisition Hunter Renfroe. Sure, the veteran outfielder had a solid track record of putting balls over the fence and a strong arm in right, but watching him was a big part of Kansas City's batting woes in the outfield. The unit hasn't turned things around overnight, but Renfroe's results have massively improved.
This isn't just a recent improvement, either. In 28 games from May 12 to June 29, Renfroe recorded an amazing .946 OPS, slashing .302/.388/.558 for a 163 wRC+. His success came from drawing walks at an 11.2% rate while only striking out 17.3% of the time. Renfroe has quickly turned things around at the plate, now inching closer to the lineup's upper half thanks to his resurgent value.
Home run production was Renfroe's calling card when the Royals signed him this offseason, and for good reason. His 173 home runs since his first full season in 2017 are the 23rd most in the Majors during that span, behind only Aaron Judge's 253; as an outfielder, he has hit 166 home runs during that same period, ranking fifth in MLB. Yet Kauffman Stadium is not historically the easiest place for home-run hitters.
That hasn't been a problem for the right-handed right fielder. Six of his eight home runs this season are in Kauffman Stadium, powering his .457 slugging within Kauffman.
Why Renfroe will stay hot: History of slow starts, strong summers
ZiPS projects Renfroe will be an above-average batter down the stretch, and I couldn't agree more. Their projected .241/.307/.425 slash line would make him a 103 wRC+ hitter for the remainder of 2024, a much-appreciated improvement from his form earlier this season. But this projection is stronger thanks to his multi-year history of strong summers.
Renfroe's best hitting months in his career are May and June, while March and April are his worst, by far. His ability to make adjustments and heat up as the season progresses bodes well for his future production. With a track record of strong summers, there is reason to believe that he will continue to be a valuable asset for the Royals moving forward.
Fade: OF Kyle Isbel
Last 15 games: .302/.348/.581, 2 HR, 3 RBI
The Fontana, California, native may be the most polarizing Royals position player in 2024, so far. Before May, casual fans could look at his poor .217/.253/.373 slash line and wonder if there were better options down on the farm. His 71 wRC+ left a ton of potential in the lineup, even if he was batting ninth. Yet, his elite fielding skills, the same that landed him on four consecutive Opening Day rosters, make him indispensable in the lineup.
Kansas City needs Isbel's elite fielding skills to patrol Kauffman Stadium's center field, and that is what he has been consistently doing. His 10 Outs Above Average in 2023 ranked fifth-best among MLB outfielders, and his total OAA since 2022 ranks fourth. Yet, his lackluster batting performance had some fans wondering if Isbel would be part of a winning lineup.
Well, his recent hot streak at the plate has proven that he can be.
Across June, Isbel is batting .309/.339/.545, good for an astounding 140 WRC+. He recorded his sixth home run on June 28, setting a career-high for long balls in a season in just 67 games. From six extra-base hits to nine RBI, Isbel gave the Royals great production in the nine-hole. But at this level, it doesn't feel sustainable.
Why Isbel will fade: Unsustainable power surge
Despite the surging results, his process hasn't changed much, and his expected stats do not match the results either. His xwOBA still hovers at or below league average, while his hard-hit rate is steadily declining, according to Baseball Savant. The lefty is putting plenty of balls in play and using his speed to leg out some more infield singles, which is entirely unreliable or sustainable.
ZiPS projects his production at the plate to be where his xwOBA is right now: at or below average. That is not a bad thing, especially from a team's ninth batter, who specializes in the field. It just pales in comparison to the exceptional performance Isbel displayed in June. He is still on track to achieve career-bests across the board, so be sure to keep an eye on Isbel's progress down the stretch.
Continue: 2B Michael Massey
Last 15 games: 360/.389/.680, 4 HR, 11 RBI
I don't think Royals fans appreciated Massey's value in the lineup until it was gone. Following his first stint on the injured list this season from March 28 to April 19, Massey missed 27 games from May 26 to June 24 due to a low back ligament sprain.
The second baseman was well above average for Kansas City at the plate during his first 29 games this season, including knocking six home runs and 12 extra-base hits in 29 games with a 123 wRC+. The lefty's presence really stretched the Royals lineup beyond just the top four, and that value wasn't appreciated until his second IL stint.
The 26-year-old flashed his defensive prowess on the field last season, logging a career-high 129 games. It was his bat that caused fans to be hesitant about his long-term outlook in Kansas City. His 2024 performance laid those concerns to rest. But, his second IL stay casts more doubt on his outlook. But, that isn't what I am fretting about. I am excited about how a designated hitter role allows the lefty more opportunity to hone his craft at the plate.
Why Massey will stay hot: Lighter workload in the field
The back issues are not going away for Massey. The Royals are slowly bringing him back along in the field, but that brings him into the lineup exclusively as a designated hitter. He only has five appearances since returning from the IL, but the initial results offer optimism.
Massey is slashing .286/.333/.571 across those five games, thanks to his go-ahead home run off Cleveland Guardians starter Tanner Bibbee Saturday night. He finished that night with two hits, marking the third game he hit safely in since returning to the 26-man roster.
I am not saying that every player who transitions to DH will automatically improve at the plate. But, batting wasn't Massey's forte last season. He has a hot bat, and a focus on that alone offers me hope for 2024.