2 KC Royals batters whose hot streaks will continue, 1 who will fade

The KC Royals suffered a roller-coaster month in June, including their first full losing month in 2024. An abysmal batting stretch from top to bottom significantly harmed this team's standing and prospects after the All-Star break. The team's performances were not ideal, but several individual hitters are on a roll. Let us look at which two hitters will keep their hot streaks going in the second half of the season and which will not.

Continue: OF Hunter Renfroe

Last 15 games: .333/.412/.667, 4 HR, 8 RBI

This time two months ago, I wondered if the Royals needed to move on from offseason acquisition Hunter Renfroe. Sure, the veteran outfielder had a solid track record of putting balls over the fence and a strong arm in right, but watching him was a big part of Kansas City's batting woes in the outfield. The unit hasn't turned things around overnight, but Renfroe's results have massively improved.

This isn't just a recent improvement, either. In 28 games from May 12 to June 29, Renfroe recorded an amazing .946 OPS, slashing .302/.388/.558 for a 163 wRC+. His success came from drawing walks at an 11.2% rate while only striking out 17.3% of the time. Renfroe has quickly turned things around at the plate, now inching closer to the lineup's upper half thanks to his resurgent value.

Home run production was Renfroe's calling card when the Royals signed him this offseason, and for good reason. His 173 home runs since his first full season in 2017 are the 23rd most in the Majors during that span, behind only Aaron Judge's 253; as an outfielder, he has hit 166 home runs during that same period, ranking fifth in MLB. Yet Kauffman Stadium is not historically the easiest place for home-run hitters.

That hasn't been a problem for the right-handed right fielder. Six of his eight home runs this season are in Kauffman Stadium, powering his .457 slugging within Kauffman.

Why Renfroe will stay hot: History of slow starts, strong summers

ZiPS projects Renfroe will be an above-average batter down the stretch, and I couldn't agree more. Their projected .241/.307/.425 slash line would make him a 103 wRC+ hitter for the remainder of 2024, a much-appreciated improvement from his form earlier this season. But this projection is stronger thanks to his multi-year history of strong summers.

Renfroe's best hitting months in his career are May and June, while March and April are his worst, by far. His ability to make adjustments and heat up as the season progresses bodes well for his future production. With a track record of strong summers, there is reason to believe that he will continue to be a valuable asset for the Royals moving forward.

Fade: OF Kyle Isbel

Last 15 games: .302/.348/.581, 2 HR, 3 RBI

The Fontana, California, native may be the most polarizing Royals position player in 2024, so far. Before May, casual fans could look at his poor .217/.253/.373 slash line and wonder if there were better options down on the farm. His 71 wRC+ left a ton of potential in the lineup, even if he was batting ninth. Yet, his elite fielding skills, the same that landed him on four consecutive Opening Day rosters, make him indispensable in the lineup.

Kansas City needs Isbel's elite fielding skills to patrol Kauffman Stadium's center field, and that is what he has been consistently doing. His 10 Outs Above Average in 2023 ranked fifth-best among MLB outfielders, and his total OAA since 2022 ranks fourth. Yet, his lackluster batting performance had some fans wondering if Isbel would be part of a winning lineup.

Well, his recent hot streak at the plate has proven that he can be.

Across June, Isbel is batting .309/.339/.545, good for an astounding 140 WRC+. He recorded his sixth home run on June 28, setting a career-high for long balls in a season in just 67 games. From six extra-base hits to nine RBI, Isbel gave the Royals great production in the nine-hole. But at this level, it doesn't feel sustainable.

Why Isbel will fade: Unsustainable power surge

Despite the surging results, his process hasn't changed much, and his expected stats do not match the results either. His xwOBA still hovers at or below league average, while his hard-hit rate is steadily declining, according to Baseball Savant. The lefty is putting plenty of balls in play and using his speed to leg out some more infield singles, which is entirely unreliable or sustainable.

ZiPS projects his production at the plate to be where his xwOBA is right now: at or below average. That is not a bad thing, especially from a team's ninth batter, who specializes in the field. It just pales in comparison to the exceptional performance Isbel displayed in June. He is still on track to achieve career-bests across the board, so be sure to keep an eye on Isbel's progress down the stretch.