MLB insiders provide odds of KC Royals veteran star being traded ahead of deadline

The Kansas City Royals are facing two very realistic scenarios heading into the trade deadline at the moment.

They are in the midst of what could be there next sizeable rut, dropping their last four games and dipping four games below .500. However, amid all of this, they still sit just 3.5 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

While plenty of insiders are leaning into the latter, including ESPN's Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel when they pitched some prominent bats as fits for the Royals at the deadline, there are also insiders exploring the idea of the Royals leaning into their struggles and assuming the role of sellers, including Passan and McDaniel.

In that same article ranking top trade deadline targets, while the focus for the Royals was primarily on targets to go after, one prominent name currently on the Royals roster was also listed in Seth Lugo.

MLB insiders provide odds of Seth Lugo being traded ahead of the July 31 deadline

The fact that Lugo was included on this list isn't surprising. Other outlets have floated the idea that the Royals might deal him. But Passan and McDaniel offered a bit of a new wrinkle to the Lugo trade conversation. They provided odds for the likelihood of Kansas City dealing him, setting the chances at 40% - which seems very sizeable for a team that still could have contending aspirations.

They reference the fact that Lugo's performance since signing with Kansas City could see him decline his player option this winter for a chance at a bigger payday. The 35-year-old has followed up his 3.00 ERA Cy Young runner-up season in 2024 with a 2.93 ERA campaign so far in 2025.

"With a Nathan Eovaldi-type contract awaiting him in free agency, Kansas City could opt to move him," they wrote.

The question that does come up if they do trade Lugo is will it be as all-out sellers where they acquire assets for the future? Or will it be a more "major leaguer for major leaguer" type deal to perhaps gain some offensive help for 2025 by dealing from their pitching depth?

At 40% odds, mathmatically speaking Lugo has better odds to stay in Kansas City than be dealt away. However, 40% isn't nothing and if the they continue to flounder and fall further down in the AL postseason picture, trading away a name like Lugo - who's not guaranteed to be there in a year - might be wise.