Matt Quatraro's trust in Lucas Erceg holding Royals back of best closing option

The Kansas City Royals are riding another lengthy losing streak having suffered their second series sweep in a row, dropping them to 22-37 on the season. Over the course of such a tumultuous season so far, the Royals have had many to blame, however, there's been one name that's stood out above the rest. Closer Lucas Erceg hasn't looked good at all of late, giving up eight earned runs in his last three outings and blowing saves in back-to-back save opportunities - including the 6-3 lead he inherited on Saturday where the Royals lost 7-6.

Erceg has been open and honest about his recent struggles and has certainly not hid behind - saying himself that he's "been terrible lately". However, according to a report from Jaylon Thompson of the Kansas City Star over the weekend, the team plans to stick with him in the closer's role moving forward, rather than move to the more surefire option this season in breakout reliever Daniel Lynch IV.

"He’s got good stuff, and we’ve seen him at his best with us," manager Matt Quatraro said to Thompson after Saturday's loss. "And he’s a competitor, and that one (Saturday’s loss) really hurts."

The issue is, as Thompson also reported, Quatraro has acknowledged himself that Erceg is struggling to put guys away. So, why keep him in the most important role in the 'pen?

While a high strikeout is not the be-all-end-all of for relief pitching success, it's the one spot in the bullpen that can be argued argue it makes the most sense to have that specific quality at the forefront. And the stats prove that this has not been Erceg this season.

While this isn't new from Erceg, as last season he dropped from a 10.51 K/9 arm in 2024 to a 7.04 K/9 one last season, what he got away with when his strikeout stuff waivered was his control. Last season his 7.2% walk rate placed him in and around the upper third of all big league arms with a 65th percentile rate of 7.2%. This season however, he's not striking arms out and he's walking them at a 10th percentile clip of 13.3%.

And if we're just going by traditional back of the card stats, a 6.33 ERA, 1.92 WHIP and .329 BAA doesn't come close to being the numbers a closer should have for a team that entered the season with contending ambitions. Lynch on the other hand is the complete opposite.

Daniel Lynch IV fits closer's mold for Royals much better than Lucas Erceg

When it comes to efficiently generating success out of the 'pen, few have done it better than Lynch this season. The former starter has taken his now relief role to whole other level this season since making the full-time swap the 'pen in 2025.

Just from a traditional stats standpoint, there's no argument to be made that Lynch isn't the best Royals bullpen arms this season. His 1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .174 BAA are top amongst all KC relievers by a comfortable margin.

And from an underlying metrics perspective, his 85th percentile K-rate and 93rd percentile whiff rate makes him the elite strikeout-oriented arm that's beneficial to have in the closer's role. On top of that, he doesn't often surrender hard contact and his walk rate is a respectable, average-looking 8.3%.

Now, it's understandable as to why the Royals potentially had some tenativeness to make a shift like this. After Matt Strahm's injury and Bailey Falter's DFA, the Royals' shallow pitching depth left Lynch as their only southpaw available in relief. It wouldn't make a ton sense to give your only lefty such a rigid role when lefty specialists can be crucial in the middle innings.

However, now that Strahm has been activated off the IL, there's some lefty flexibility to be had once again. So, if Strahm were to take those lefty spots in the middle to late innings, Lynch could more comfortably take over the closer's spot, which he's more than earned, without the Royals feeling like they're sacrificing too much logistically.

On top of that, if Kansas City does end up turning their focus to 2027 and assuming the role of sellers at the upcoming trade deadline, Lynch might be one of their more valuable assets. And if he were to get some regular closing experience under his belt between now and Aug. 3, perhaps it would raise his trade value that much more - especially considering he's a lefty with two years of control remaining after 2026.

But at the very least, the Royals can't afford to keep losing games, so perhaps it's time to simplify things and have your best arms pitch in the highest leverage moments.

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