KC Royals Top 100 prospect dramatically falls in MLB Pipeline’s latest rankings

Any Kansas City Royals fan who follows the farm system with a critical eye knows one thing for sure: this pipeline is trending in the right direction. Years of lackluster drafting in the late 2010s and some outdated development philosophies left the cupboard bare once top names like Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino graduated. But lately, things have shifted. A revamped pitching development approach, smarter drafting, and the addition of top prospect Jac Caglianone have sparked new life in Kansas City’s farm system.

Still, even as the organization turns the corner, not every prospect is progressing at the same pace.

MLB Pipeline recently issued what writer Sam Dykstra called a “market correction” to its Top 100 Prospects list. Typically, the list gets major updates twice per year—preseason and midseason—but this year, Pipeline is adjusting every six weeks. These tweaks highlight risers, fallers, and prompt fresh voting on the top 15 prospects. While Caglianone earned a coveted spot among that top tier, fellow Royals prospect Carter Jensen wasn’t as fortunate, falling from 77th to 88th overall.

Should the KC Royals be worried about new outlook on Carter Jensen?

That drop might not seem drastic, but it signals a concerning trend.

Jensen’s production has taken a step back to start 2025. At the time of writing, he’s slashing just .228/.291/.324, with a 77 wRC+—nearly half of his 130 mark from the previous year. For a hitter known for his keen eye and raw power, the drop-off is significant. His walk rate has dipped to a career-low 7.4%, while his strikeout rate has jumped to 26.4%, his worst since his 2021 debut season.

Optimistically, this could be a bump in the road as he adjusts to Double-A. Jensen is clearly making changes, especially in his approach. Long labeled as too passive at the plate, he’s become more aggressive without completely abandoning his discipline. His swinging-strike and called-strike rates have only ticked up by 0.1% each from last season.

He’s also making more contact, but the quality and direction of that contact are what stand out. So far, 39.2% of his batted balls have gone to the opposite field, which is by far the highest rate of his professional career. That shift has come at the expense of his pull rate, which has dropped from 48.8% in 2024 to just 34.0% this year. If this is a conscious effort to develop a more well-rounded approach, the payoff may still be coming.

And while the bat is what makes Jensen a Top 100 prospect, it’s worth noting the strides he’s made behind the plate. His receiving skills have noticeably improved, and he caught every inning of a no-hitter for Northwest Arkansas earlier this year. He's also thrown out 28% of attempted base stealers, another sign of growth in a position that demands so much.

Jensen still looks like a future big-league catcher. But to stick in the Top 100, the bat has to bounce back. The tools are still there, and there’s reason for patience—but it’s fair to say 2025 hasn’t started the way Royals fans or evaluators hoped.

Let’s see where the rest of the season takes him before writing him off.