KC Royals’ latest signing flies in the face of team’s current strengths

When news broke that the Kansas City Royals had signed right-handed pitcher Carlos Estévez, the reaction across social media was overwhelmingly positive. The club had made its biggest free-agent acquisition of the offseason, strengthening the bullpen with a 2023 All-Star and raising the team’s floor for 2025.

Of course, fans should be excited when their team gets better — but several aspects of the Royals’ investment in Estévez feel more like settling for the status quo rather than making a move that pushes the team to new heights.

Estévez earned his two-year, $20 million deal — with a $13 million club option for a third year — based on a strong track record. He was dominant early in 2024 for the Los Angeles Angels, racking up 20 saves in 34 appearances before a midseason trade to the Philadelphia Phillies. While he still limited runs effectively for stretches, his performance was inconsistent, culminating in a disastrous grand slam surrendered to the New York Mets that effectively ended the Phillies’ season.

But the slate is wiped clean, right? New team, new threads, new chances. The Royals made their largest bullpen investment in years, clearly believing Estévez fits their roster. Yet, every sign suggests the opposite.

The KC Royals and Carlos Estévez are hardly a perfect fit.

Take a look at the park factors in Kansas City's current home, Kauffman Stadium. Unlike his previous home ballparks — Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park and Angel Stadium — Kauffman is one of the toughest places in baseball to hit a home run. While that might seem like an advantage for a pitcher, Estévez hasn’t struggled with home run prevention. His real issue is allowing quality contact, something that Kauffman rewards due to its expansive outfield.

Stats like expected batting average on contact (xBACON) thrive in Kauffman, thanks to its expansive field and some lackluster play at the corner outfields. Both park factors for xBACON and its weighted cousin xwOBAcon rank in the league's top three. Meanwhile, Estévez has struggled in recent years to limit high-quality contact. He ranked in the league’s 10th percentile in barrel percentage in 2024, meaning opponents squared up his pitches at an alarming rate. His 33.6% hard-hit rate was the 28th worst among relievers — had he been on the Royals last season, only Sam Long would have been worse.

Estévez also doesn’t induce many ground balls, which means he won’t fully benefit from Kansas City’s elite infield defense. Pitchers like Kris Bubic and Angel Zerpa thrived last season by generating ground balls and allowing the Royals’ infielders to make plays behind them. Estévez doesn’t fit that mold.

Another red flag is his unsustainable .229 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) from 2024, a stark contrast to his career .309 mark. Even compared to his 2023 BABIP of .344, last season’s number is an extreme outlier. BABIP isn’t purely luck-based, but relievers rarely maintain such low figures year-over-year, suggesting potential regression ahead.

Beyond his on-field performance, the Royals’ roster investment raises further questions. While the bullpen needed help, it hovered around league average in 2024. Meanwhile, the Royals’ outfield was among the worst in baseball — both offensively and defensively — yet the front office has not addressed those shortcomings.

Estévez's contract's annual value is just shy of what outfielder Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar signed for, and it far exceeds the deals given to Max Kepler or Jesse Winker. While free agency requires mutual interest, one has to wonder how different the Royals’ Opening Day lineup would look if those financial resources had been allocated to an outfielder instead.

None of this is to say that Estévez won’t be a useful addition. But there are real concerns about how his game translates to Kauffman Stadium and whether the Royals maximized their spending this offseason. While he may solidify the bullpen, fans expecting a dominant, lockdown closer may need to temper their expectations.