Determining Royals’ most expendable starting pitcher if they become trade deadline sellers

With the Royals' playoff hopes becoming dimmer as we speak, it only makes sense for the team to regroup and look ahead to the 2027 season. Unfortunately for fans, that means that the team will likely become sellers at the trade deadline. And nobody likes to see some of their favorite players shipped off to better teams. But in the Royals' case, becoming conscientious sellers could be the best move to reach the next step as yearly playoff contenders. It just comes down to who the team is willing to part with.

As of June 17, the team is seven games back of the A's for the third Wild Card spot in the AL. Although that doesn't seem like that much an obstacle to overcome, it may be too tall of a task for the Royals at this point, especially with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games. Equipped with some strong starting pitchers that other teams will want, the Royals could be positioned to quickly bounce back from this season. But which pitcher is the team's most expendable?

From Kris Bubic to Michael Wacha, the Royals' need to decide what kind of future they are hoping to build.

Kris Bubic looked to be on his way out already, but injuries may say otherwise

It's no secret that Bubic may very likely be wearing a different ball cap next season. The lefty was a revelation last year, jumping back into the starting rotation for the first time since 2023 and pitching lights out. His All-Star season saw him sporting a 2.55 ERA in 20 starts while boasting a strong WHIP of 1.178. Until an injury sidelined him for the remainder of the 2025 season, Bubic had even put himself into the discussion for the Cy Young.

But that unfortunate mid-season injury was not exactly a one-time thing for Bubic. Throughout his seven-year big league career, Bubic has been plagued with an assortment of injuries that has caused him to miss significant time. This may actually be the biggest bargaining chip that the organization has when it comes to not dealing the LHP and resigning him.

Will other teams still be willing to look past the injuries and part way with high-end prospects for a rental pitcher that may or may not take the mound for them down the stretch? Only time will tell.

Outside of his injury history, Bubic is still just 28 years old. If he is able to stay healthy and return to his first-half of 2025 form, the Royals would be well-equipped to shake off their rough 2026 season and focus on contending next year. With Bubic's value in question, a team-friendly or short-term deal may not be out of the question at this point. That alone makes holding onto him worth the risk.

Is riding it out with Seth Lugo the Royals' best option?

Even before taking a nasty liner off his forehead on June 10, Lugo hasn't had his best season with the Royals. Taking a peek at his Baseball Savant page reveals some alarming metrics that reveal obvious regression for the reliable workhorse. With an xERA more than 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA, Lugo has already shown a lot of holes in his once-steady game. At 36 years old, that was to be expected. But it also puts his trade value into question.

Could a playoff contender take a chance with Lugo and trade a few middling prospects for him? Sure. But that wouldn't make much sense for the Royals. The best value he provides for the team would be with him wearing the Kansas City powder blues. He will likely be more than capable of providing solid innings next year and support a staff that has seen its fair share of injuries. And his team option for 2028 could come equipped with upside or act as the perfect chance to part ways.

Whether the Royals like it or not, Lugo is most likely attached to the team through the 2027 season. And that doesn't mean it's a bad thing. Although the time to sell high on Lugo would have been last year, he has still accrued 1.6 fWAR though his first 14 starts in 2026. So the value is still there and his contract is well worth holding onto as the team looks to turn things around next season.

Michael Wacha's stability might just be exactly what other teams want at trade deadline

Despite navigating through a very rocky road during the middle part of his career, Wacha has delivered a number of strong seasons over the past few years. Since 2022, he's collected 51 wins to the tune of 3.47 ERA over that stretch. And he's done so without eye-popping stats either, posting a K/9 of just 7.49 over the last five seasons.

However, while his under the hood metrics don't paint the picture of a yearly Cy Young contender, he has transformed himself into a very dependable arm for the Royals. After all, he's thrown at least 166.2 innings in the last two seasons and he's well on his way to eclipsing that mark again in 2026. With his 35th birthday just a few weeks away, there's no reason to believe that Wacha doesn't have enough left in the tank either. But you would expect some decline at some point within the next couple of years. This means that his value will never be higher.

The righty has one more year left on his reasonable three-year/$51 million contract after this season and a team option that can keep him under control through 2028. For a contender looking for depth in their rotation, Wacha would slide in as the perfect back-end guy that can eat his fair share of innings and keep you in ballgames. Though it would be tough to part ways with such a solid pitcher, now is the time.

With the Royals likely out of contention this season but still eyeing an AL Central title in the very near future, Wacha would make the most sense to move now and cash in on his value. He is the perfect middle ground between Bubic and Lugo. A pitcher that has been very good for your team, but somebody valuable enough to other teams that you could replenish the farm system with a handful of mid-tier prospects.

Make no mistake, Wacha has been an excellent signing for the Royals and his loss will be felt in the short-term. But the Royals' front office has to take advantage of their best trade pieces in order to strengthen the team's future. This means that Wacha is the most expendable for the 2026 Royals.

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