What a Kris Bubic extension could look like if the Royals don't end up trading him

The Kansas City Royals entered this offseason with a clear list of needs, but without a treasure trove of resources to address them. They did not have a deep farm system to trade from or a Scrooge McDuck-sized vault to raid for payroll.

There was a short list of major-league players Kansas City could realistically move, namely trading from its perceived starting pitching surplus to address the outfield or second base. Left-handed starter Kris Bubic was a popular trade candidate, but with him still reporting to camp, that path feels less and less likely.

Deals can still come together, but Bubic specifically being moved does not feel like the most probable outcome anymore. That was only one option, though. Option B, Bubic returning to Kansas City for his final year of team control, is the betting favorite. After all, the Royals do have rotation depth, but Bubic undeniably raises the floor and makes the group better. He plays out 2026 and rides off into 2027.

But, much like Austin Aries reminded Hulk Hogan, there is an option C. The option that asks Kansas City to take on risk, just as Bubic would be taking on risk, in 2026 and beyond. It is the option that keeps Bubic in a Royals uniform longer, pairing him with Cole Ragans to give Kansas City a legitimate left-handed punch at the top. That third option, an extension, has been whispered about all winter, but without any clear outcome.

I, nor Kings of Kauffman, have a crystal ball. But if you zoom out and look at the landscape, you can start to outline what an extension framework might look like if the Royals and Bubic’s camp want to meet in the middle.

A Kris Bubic-Royals extension should absolutely be on the table and fans' minds.

The Tampa Bay Rays have a couple of recent examples that function as loose comps. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen signed a two-year extension ahead of the 2025 season with a club option for 2027. His base salaries were modest, but escalators and the option pushed the deal’s total value much higher if he stayed healthy and performed.

Rasmussen responded with a career-high 150.0 innings and his first All-Star selection in 2025. He is the cleanest example of the structure, even if the pitcher and team context differ.

Other Rays deals also point in the same direction. Jeffrey Springs had a team-friendly extension built around controlling downside, and even Tyler Glasnow’s situation, while not a perfect match, reflects how clubs try to capture upside without fully guaranteeing ace-level money when health is a question.

Another model comes from Milwaukee’s approach with Brandon Woodruff. Their two-year deal with a mutual option gave the Brewers a way to protect themselves while still offering the pitcher a ramp back into value. The base salary rose year over year, and the option provided a clean exit if either side wanted it.

If there is a cautionary tale here, it is Houston’s extension with Lance McCullers Jr. The Astros committed five years and $85 million ahead of his best season in 2021.

Since then, injuries have limited him to a fraction of the innings the contract assumed, and the lack of meaningful outs, incentives, or protections left Houston holding all the downside. That is the kind of structure Kansas City cannot afford to replicate.

Beyond the total dollar figure, there are a few checkpoints both sides should want to hit.

Kansas City’s concerns are obvious. Bubic’s recent injury history and limited track record as a long-term starter make this a real gamble. Prior to his elbow injury, he carried a 4.85 career ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.

He still has not logged a full, healthy season since that 2023 injury, whether as a starter or in a relief-heavy role. The Royals cannot back themselves into a deal where they pay for stability but end up buying variance.

Bubic’s side has a different timeline. He turns 29 this August, and if he is going to sign a multi-year extension now, he likely wants at least one more meaningful shot at free agency after it expires. That makes a shorter term, or a structure with a clear off-ramp, the logical compromise.

The Royals could push for a team option after two or three years. If they want to be more player-friendly, a mutual option can accomplish the same practical goal while giving Bubic some agency. The point is not to get cute. The point is to create a deal that protects Kansas City if health becomes an issue again, while still rewarding Bubic if he proves 2025 was a real step forward.

And that is where the balance between base salary and incentives becomes the most important part of the conversation.

Kansas City just gave Vinnie Pasquantino a two-year deal that can climb meaningfully via performance-based escalators. A Bubic extension should follow the same blueprint. All-Star selections, All-MLB recognition, Cy Young voting, innings thresholds, starts, and even ERA benchmarks are all common incentive markers that reflect both performance and durability.

If Bubic believes he can perform at or near his 2025 level again, a contract that lets him bet on himself while still providing security makes sense for both sides.

Any extension would still need to pay him well above the $6.15 million he is earning through arbitration this year. But it cannot be so heavy on guaranteed money that it pinches Kansas City’s payroll flexibility.

The Royals will have Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Ragans on the books into at least 2027, and that alone could make them hesitant to add another meaningful multi-year commitment in the rotation without safeguards.

Still, there is a path here. It is not straightforward, easy, or even the most likely outcome. But stranger things have happened in baseball, and if these Royals are truly more willing to spend, retaining Bubic keeps the competitive window open a little wider, and keeps one more quality arm in Royals blue.