Depressing playoff odds show its past time for KC Royals to enter seller mode

The KC Royals are still talking a good game about being buyers at the MLB Trade Deadline. However, after yet another depressing loss that extended the team’s home losing streak to 11, it might be time to give up the dream. Especially since the chances that Kansas City will get into the postseason are now quite minuscule.

One reason why the Royals are still holding out hope that they can get back into the race is that they’ve gotten hot before. There was a stretch this season where they looked darn near unbeatable. That kind of stretch can be accomplished again if the right buttons are pressed and the right moves are made. However, it’s not so much that time is running out as that it might have already run out.

According to Fangraphs, after their 5-4 loss to the Los Anegels Dodgers on Friday, the KC Royals now have just a 10.5% chance of making the playoffs this season. That’s not only the lowest their odds have been in 2025, by a wide margin, but it also puts them ahead of just four other teams. 

KC Royals playoff odds plunge to 10.5%, putting deadline buyer talk in doubt

The Chicago White Sox, who, according to the metrics, have already been eliminated, sit at the very bottom with a 0% chance of a playoff berth. Second to last is the Athletics, who have just a 0.2% chance. That’s eye-opening if only because there was a time earlier in the year when they were surprising people with how well they played. Even in the depths of their struggles, they managed to sweep the Royals.

The Baltimore Orioles come in third with a 3.6% chance of extending their season. Then, it's the Los Angeles Angels with just a 6.0% chance. That’s where the KC Royals come in with their just under 11% chance.

To underline just how bad things are in Kauffman these days, only one other team in the AL has less than a 15% chance of making the postseason. It’s still early enough that plenty of squads still have a shot. Only the Boston Red Sox have seemingly shot themselves in the foot as entirely as the Royals.

It’s worth pointing out that to some extent, the Red Sox have already started selling, even if the team isn’t admitting the Rafael Devers trade was the beginning of a purge. Whether they want to admit it again, the KC Royals should start their selloff while they can get the best returns.