Can KC Royals speedster Maikel Garcia regain his 2024 baserunning form?

Baserunning may be an underrated aspect of baseball, but nonetheless it is still an important factor. Just like with any other facet of the game, some players excel at base running while others struggle to bring added value. When fans think of the best baserunners in the game, stars like Corbin Carroll, Shohei Ohtani, Elly De La Cruz, and Bobby Witt Jr. come quickly to mind.

Royals fans may also think of another great baserunner in utility man Maikel Garcia. Oddly, Garcia’s baserunning game has been off this year (according to outlets like Baseball Savant) and he’s not bringing the extra value to the basepaths he’s done in the past. What’s behind Garcia’s lack of positive baserunning, and is there anything that can be done to fix it?

*Note: all statistics in this article are from Baseball Savant*

Can Maikel Garcia regain his 2024 baserunning form?

How is Baserunning Value Measured?

Baserunning value is measured by Baseball Savant as a way to express a runner’s ability to take the extra base or to steal bases in order to get into better scoring position. Essentially, if a player is able to get a good read on a ball hit to the outfield and can go first-to-third or can get a good jump on pitchers and successfully steal second or third, they’re going to produce value.

Conversely, if runner’s are thrown out on the basepaths or do not take extra bags, they’re going to lose value. The baserunning value metric awards baserunners who are aggressive and successful and punishes those who are too conservative or are too aggressive.

How Does Maikel Garcia Stack Up?

In 2024, Garcia was one of the most valuable baserunners in the game. Not only was he aggressive (104 attempts at taking the extra base, 6th in all of baseball), he was successful too. Garcia was able to nab 26 extra bases over average while staying at the league average outs created just through base stealing alone.

In layman’s terms, Garcia was excellent at stealing bases and not getting caught. Just to provide some context, a player that had exactly 0 extra bases gained through steals and exactly 0 outs created compared to league average was Teoscar Hernandez. Hernandez isn’t known as a base stealer, but he certainly isn’t a tugboat out there on the basepaths. Garcia being able to provide an additional 26 extra bases over average (with the exact average being a guy like Hernandez who isn’t slow by any means) is quite impressive.

Garcia was also one of the better baserunners at taking the extra base on balls in play (turning singles into doubles, going first-to-third, etc.).

Safe over opportunity is a metric that measures a baserunner’s ability to safely take an extra base based on the number of chances they have been given.

For context, the league leader in this metric in 2024 was Corbin Carroll at 53%, so this means that Carroll successfully took an extra base 53% of the time. Safe over attempt percentage measures the success when a runner chooses to advance. Many players scored a 100% in this metric as it awards both successful aggressors and conservative runners.

How did Garcia fare in these metrics? His safe over opportunity metric was 42% (36th in the league) and his safe over attempt metric was at 98%. Again, in layman’s terms, Garcia was one of the more aggressive runners in the league at taking the extra base, and he was usually successful at doing so.

What's Happened to His Baserunning in 2025?

Garcia has been MORE aggressive at trying to steal bases (a 3% increase in steal attempts since last year) and he has had far less success this year than last year. Garcia has already been caught stealing 5 times which leads the American league.

Why is he getting caught stealing more? There could be several factors at play. First, according to Baseball Savant, Garcia has slowed down each year he’s been in the big leagues and he’s down into the 66th percentile after being in the 81st percentile when he first joined the Royals. Second, his leads have oddly been shorter by about 4 feet this year.

Is four feet a lot of ground? Not necessarily, but if Garcia is slowing down slightly, getting shorter leads AND is being more aggressive, it only makes sense that he’ll get caught stealing more often than he did last year.

Garcia also has been less successful at taking the extra base when the ball is in play. He’s been about the same from an aggression standpoint (he takes the extra base about 7% more than the average baserunner) but he has been only successful on 92% of his advance attempts (again, most players are at 100%). These outs penalize a player’s baserunning value and add up over the course of a season.

However, it is important to note that the numbers are noisy at this point of the year. His 92% safe over attempt percentage is lower than last year, but that’s because he’s been thrown out once in 13 attempts.

He has shown a strong ability in this area in the past, so Garcia should continue taking a similar approach (7% more aggressive than league average) and know that he’s right most of the time. His ability to take the extra base will add value as the season goes on.

How can Garcia Regain Positive Baserunning Value?

His approach when the ball is in play is perfectly fine and should stabilize as we delve further into the spring and summer. However, Garcia should change his approach when it comes to stolen bases. Based on the fact that he’s getting a bit slower and seemingly isn’t as successful at getting jumps and leads this year, Garcia taking a more conservative approach (especially with his stolen base attempts) would help him retain positive baserunning value.

He still shows an ability to steal bases, but “picking his spots” against pitchers with slower deliveries would help him keep the caught steals down. And, if he can get back to taking a slightly larger lead he may be more successful. After all, a few feet can easily be the difference between being safe and out.

Garcia has been off to an excellent start this season for the 23-16 Kansas City Royals, and fans should be ecstatic about his play so far this season. If Garcia can recapture his success in taking the extra bag last year it would add an additional excellent element to an already great profile. The good news is that Garcia still has the skills and speed to improve, making some minor adjustments to his stolen base approach should help him get back to his excellent baserunning value from years past.