3 Royals batters fans should expect a step back from in 2025

Turning the page on the 2024 season feels bittersweet for Kansas City Royals fans. In years past, moving on was easy — shedding the disappointment of poor performances and clinging to the hope of a fresh start. But 2024 was different. An 86-win season, capped by a Wild Card series victory, marked a notable success for a franchise that has struggled to recapture the magic of its 2015 World Series run. While it wasn’t the ultimate outcome fans dream of, it was a step forward and a better conclusion than most of Kansas City’s peers could claim.

As the dust settles, the clarity of hindsight provides valuable perspective. It’s easier now to appreciate how remarkably healthy the Royals were compared to other teams, or to acknowledge their savvy use of MLB’s challenge system. Another insight that comes into sharper focus is which players outperformed their expected stats — the metrics that reflect what the broader baseball world anticipated from them. Overperformance is common, but some players exceeded expectations so significantly in 2024 that regression in 2025 feels almost inevitable.

Here are three Royals batters who did just that.

Dairon Blanco, OF

The speed and base-stealing ability of Dairon Blanco evoke memories of players like Terrance Gore and Jarrod Dyson for Royals fans. The Cuban outfielder is one of baseball's most electrifying baserunners, making every trip to first base feel like the start of something special. But beyond pinch-running, Blanco struggled to get on base consistently in 2024, and a step back in 2025 seems likely.

Blanco swiped a career-high 31 bases in just 88 games last season, and his .258/.308/.392 slash line was respectable. However, his ability to reach base leaned heavily on an unsustainable 28.9% infield hit rate, raising concerns about his long-term effectiveness. While “that’s what speed do,” as the saying goes, many of those hits were unlikely to hold up under closer scrutiny. Blanco’s expected stats reveal a significant gap — his .306 wOBA vastly outperformed his .282 expected wOBA (xwOBA), the 33rd-largest discrepancy in MLB last season.

Blanco had his moments — most memorably in the "Yellow Crayon" game — but his value is tied entirely to his legs. If he regresses to the mean, as expected, fewer trips to first base will limit his opportunities to leverage his best tool. Without a significant shift in his plate approach or batted-ball profile, 2025 could be a tougher season for Blanco.

Hunter Renfroe, RF

Royals fans may be surprised to learn that Hunter Renfroe outperformed his expected stats in 2024, but that might be one of the few positives from his underwhelming campaign. After exercising his $7.6 million option for 2025, Renfroe’s return is a reality fans must accept. With little competition, it’s very possible he’s Kansas City’s Opening Day right fielder — a scenario that raises concerns.

When general manager J.J. Picollo signed Renfroe ahead of the 2024 season, the hope was for a rebound year. Renfroe, worth 5.0 fWAR between 2021 and 2022, had regressed in 2023 while splitting time with the Angels and Reds. Unfortunately, 2024 failed to reflect a turnaround. His 92 wRC+ was identical to 2023, and his .302 wOBA marked the lowest of any full season in his career. Worse still, his .291 xwOBA was also a career low and among the worst on the Royals roster.

Renfroe’s quick bat failed to translate into quality contact. His 6.6% barrel rate was his second worst, and he struggled with hitting under the ball, a departure from his usual profile. Projections for 2025 offer modest hope, with Steamer projecting a 104 wRC+ and 0.6 fWAR over 86 games. While that would be an improvement, it’s still far below what’s needed from a bat-first corner outfielder. Royals fans should prepare for the possibility of another disappointing season from Renfroe.

Freddy Fermin, C

Freddy Fermin was one of the most pleasant surprises for the Royals in 2024. There were stretches when he seemed like the team’s only offensive spark outside of Bobby Witt Jr., endearing him to fans. However, much of Fermin’s production exceeded expectations, and replicating that success in 2025 would be surprising.

In a sense, it feels odd complaining about Fermin's 2024 campaign. His 91 wRC+ and elite defensive value were a welcome combination, but his lack of power severely hampered his overall value. His .094 ISO ranked near the bottom of MLB and was the worst among qualified catchers. While his improved walk and strikeout rates were promising, his inability to consistently find the outfield alleys limited his offensive upside.

Fermin’s batted-ball data highlights the issue. His 3.2% barrel rate and 29.2% sweet-spot rate ranked in the 6th percentile among MLB hitters. While he made strides with increased playing time in 2024, his lack of quality contact remains a significant concern. A cold finish to the season likely ended any potential trade discussions involving Fermin this offseason. While he remains a useful piece for the Royals in 2025, it’s unlikely he’ll match his value from the previous season without improvements at the plate.