From KC Royals dynamo to dud, Freddy Fermin struggles at the plate

There's a reason baseball fans call the season a marathon, not a sprint. The 162-game schedule has brought both staggering highs and abysmal lows for the KC Royals, with individual performances following suit. Even superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has experienced peaks and valleys, but his overall season is an undeniable success. However, his supporting cast has been far more inconsistent, including the well-liked catcher Freddy Fermin.

KC Royals found diamond in the rough with Freddy Fermin

Fermin was one of the most pleasant surprises for the 2023 Royals, carving out a solid role with success both behind the plate and at bat. He epitomizes the late bloomer, never considered a headline prospect as he came up through the farm system, yet he defied those odds. Entering 2024 with higher expectations, Fermin had a chance to prove that his 2023 season wasn’t a fluke.

He did just that through the season's opening months and continued to perform well beyond the All-Star break.

Fermin wasn’t an everyday player, but he appeared in 70 games through Aug. 2. By that point, he had slashed an impressive .313/.364/.446, good for an .809 OPS in his reserve role behind catcher Salvador Perez. Though he rarely batted high in the lineup, Fermin was the sparkplug the Royals needed in the lower half, keeping rallies alive or setting the table for the top-half hitters.

When first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino went down, fans had a simple plan in mind: move Perez to primarily play first base while Fermin stayed behind the dish. It was an emergency option that would have been ideal in June or July, and Perez has done his part. Since Aug. 30, the likely Hall of Famer has slashed a respectable .258/.333/.364 and has kicked into a higher gear over the past two weeks.

Freddy Fermin's bat hasn't met expectations when KC Royals need it most

Meanwhile, Fermin’s bat has gone ice cold during that same span. Over 44 plate appearances, he’s posted a dismal .175/.250/.175 slash line, resulting in a paltry 22 wRC+. While Kansas City’s offense as a whole has struggled with a 71 wRC+ since losing their first baseman, Fermin has been a liability at the plate, even compared to his peers.

Usually, when a player struggles, it looks like they’re lost at the plate, overwhelmed by the moment, and just need an off day to reset. The frustrating part of Fermin’s struggles is that hasn’t been the case. He’s still drawing plenty of walks, with a 9.1% walk rate, and his strikeout rate hasn’t skyrocketed—20.5% since Aug. 30 and 17.8% on the season. He’s putting plenty of balls in play; the results just aren’t there.

Advanced metrics are not kind to Freddy Fermin with KC Royals

If you’ve been following Fermin’s Baseball Savant page this season, this slump isn’t all that surprising. By now, we all know that red means good and blue means bad on those charts. Even before his recent slide, Fermin's page was filled with blue, indicating below-average metrics that suggested he was overperforming at the plate. Here’s how he stacks up in some of the key batting metrics on the site.

Sure, Fermin is in the 72nd percentile for strikeout rate and 62nd percentile for whiff rate, but those are the only metrics where he’s above average. MLB stats have a way of correcting themselves over time, but this slump couldn’t have come at a worse time for Fermin, with the playoffs looming. It may have been wishful thinking to ignore the red flags, but Fermin had been so dependable. Until he wasn’t.

Is there an easy fix? No. If there were, the Royals coaching staff would have identified and addressed it by now. His swing mechanics haven’t noticeably changed, his demeanor remains steady, and he’s still stellar behind the plate. However, there is one difference that, while mostly a gut feeling, may explain Fermin’s recent struggles.

Could one adjustment get Freddy Fermin back on track for KC Royals?

Take a look at Fermin's recent series against the Detroit Tigers, specifically his only start on Sept. 17. He went hitless, with his most pivotal plate appearance coming in the sixth inning with runners on first and second. Things weren’t dire, but the Royals had already scored one run, and Fermin needed at least a productive out. Instead, on the first pitch, he flew out in foul territory.

That was a prime scoring opportunity for Kansas City, especially in a game that ended in an extra-innings loss. It was also Fermin's second out of the night after swinging at the first pitch. This seems to be a recurring issue for the Venezuelan, with negative results when he swings early in the count. In fact, he’s put the ball in play on the first pitch in 45 plate appearances this season, with a dismal .568 OPS when doing so.

There’s a divide in baseball’s schools of thought. Some believe you should always take the first pitch, while others see it as a prime opportunity to ambush the pitcher. Over the course of the season, Fermin has had better results when he takes the first pitch, whether it’s a ball or a strike. Lately, however, he’s been swinging at more first pitches—with worse outcomes.

Forget the strikeout rate—when Fermin takes the first pitch, he’s a significantly more valuable hitter. Overall, taking that first pitch leads to better outcomes for him. It’s a small adjustment, but a conscious change that Fermin can make at the plate. But hey, what do I know?

At the end of the day, the Royals’ lineup is sinking. Kansas City’s batters look like a 70-win group that Bobby Witt Jr.’s bat has dragged into postseason contention. Their 71 wRC+ since Aug. 30 is the second-worst in MLB, even falling behind the historically bad Chicago White Sox in that span. Manager Matt Quatraro can keep trusting his players to break out of their slump, but how each player finds their way is up to them. Could that simple adjustment be the spark Fermin needs? It certainly wouldn’t hurt to try.

Fermin was once that reliable bat at the bottom of the lineup, capable of sparking a Kansas City rally. He can still be that player when it matters most for this team—or at least I hope he can be.

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