KC Royals: Looking At How 2016 Luck Affects 2017 Projections

Brandon Moss

Like Moustakas, BABIP wasn’t the nicest friend to Brandon Moss. One of the newer acquisitions of the KC Royals, many people hope he can fill the production that left in Kendrys Morales. The power is always there for Moss. The thing that is inconsitant is the batting average. And Moss isn’t to fond off it either.

At first glance, when you see Moss make contact, you don’t expect him to have a bad batting average. Last year, Moss was 8th in the MLB in average distance per ball in play, at 250 feet. So some good results would be expected. Well, last year Moss had a .102 BABIP on flyballs, well below his career average. This was also 145th out of 185 players with at least 100 flyballs hit. I would expect some positive regression for Moss this year.

More from Kings of Kauffman

• KC Royals: Let the Ryan O’Hearn Watch begin…again
• KC Royals Roster Moves: 3 players added, 1 re-signed
• KC Royals News: Awards, a new coach, and more
• Why the KC Royals could reunite with this old friend
• 3 outfielders the KC Royals should consider protecting

Joakim Soria

As I mentioned in a tweet recently, Joakim Soria had a very strange return with the Royals. In 2016, Joakim Soria’s BABIP rose from .263 to .323 in one year. You could suggest this happened because he is an aging relief pitcher, but last year Soria lowered his line drive %. For further evidence, among 22 relief pitchers with a BABIP higher than .320, Soria had the 6th lowest LD%.

Another odd thing was that his HR/FB% rose even after moving to Kauffman Stadium. I would think Soria has much better season this year. One thing to worry about though is the raising walk rate.