KC Royals: Looking At How 2016 Luck Affects 2017 Projections

For the KC Royals, one bounce can change the whole outcome of a game. Being lucky or unlucky can even determine if a season was a success or disappointment. I’ll take a look at some the players on the Royals that are due for an increase or decrease in production.

Increase

These are the players that had trouble getting a break in 2016. You can tell this through certain detailed stats that explain luck.

Mike Moustakas      

The real bad luck for Moustaks came from a collision with Alex Gordon on a foul ball that ended his season prematurely. The biggest disappointment from this injury was that we weren’t going to get to see a full season from Moustakas after an April and May that saw him flashing some elite power. But even will all the great production coming from his bat, he was a very unlucky hitter last year.

When Moustakas was healthy, he got few breaks on balls in play, evidenced by his .240 BABIP. Between the beginning of the season and late May, when Moustakas played, his BABIP came in 265th out of 277 hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. It wasn’t really a mechanical flaw either. As many Kansas City Royals fans saw, Moustakas may have improved even more from his all-star 2015. His hard hit % increased by about 6%. Moustakas also set a career high opposite %, suggesting maybe he can start to beat the shift more.

If Moustakas can start out with better luck this year and build off his recent success, he could maybe unleash a monster 2017 season.