2 projected arbitration salaries KC Royals shouldn't pay, 1 they must

It won't be long before the end of the 2024 World Series officially triggers what should be a busy and productive offseason for the Kansas City Royals. Free agency starts and the major league trade market reopens the day after the Series concludes, teams must set their 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft purposes late next month, and MLB will conduct the Rule 5 Draft on December 11.

There's also arbitration, the annual salary sweepstakes for players with enough service time to negotiate their pay, but not enough to become free agents. The Royals have 10 arbitration-eligible players — pitchers Brady Singer, Hunter Harvey, Daniel Lynch IV, Carlos Hernández, Kris Bubic, John Schreiber, Kyle Wright, and Hunter Harvey, and outfielders Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez.

If the Royals want a player back but can't agree on his 2025 salary, the player and club will submit their respective compensation proposals to an arbitration panel which, barring a subsequent settlement, will pick one or the other amount for the player to earn next season. The Royals can also cut arbitration-eligible players loose by not offering them contracts ("non-tendering"), which makes them free agents.

So what will the arbitration process be like for the Royals this offseason, who should they pay, and which players should they let go?

Will arbitration be hard for the KC Royals?

Probably not. If MLB Trade Rumors' recently published projected arbitration awards are in the ballpark (they usually are), and barring any trades of affected players, the Royals should be able to keep most of their arbitration-eligible players with little or no difficulty, and perhaps without the need for any panel hearings. For example, expect the club to bring back Isbel and Lynch who, even if forced to hearings, will be bargains at their respective $1.1 million and $1.7 million projected salaries.

The cases of Wright and Taylor should be the same. KC signed Wright last winter knowing he'd miss this season, and Taylor missed much of 2023 and all of 2024 with injuries. MLBTR predicts both would be awarded the same salaries they made this year — $1.8 million for Wright, $1.1 million for Taylor.

The Royals will probably find paying Schreiber $2 million and Bubic $2.8 million affordable and palatable. And even if they consider handing Melendez $2.5 million to be an overpay, their obvious level of commitment to him means they'll do it.

But what about Singer, Hernández, and Harvey? Kansas City shouldn't pay two of them what MLBTR says they can make in arbitration, but should, if they have to, give one what MLBTR projects.

Who shouldn't Kansas City pay?

KC shouldn't meet projections for Carlos Hernández and Hunter Harvey

To put it bluntly, the Royals can survive without Hernández and Harvey.

Hernández had a decent 2024 season, posting an acceptable 3.30 ERA in 30 innings spread across 27 appearances. But as he's been prone to do in five big league seasons, he walked too many batters (4.8 BB/9) and, save for the team's disastrous 2023 season when he pitched 67 times (and had a 5.27 ERA), just can't seem to stick with the big club. He's inconsistent and his major-league totals — 7-19 with a 4.95 ERA in 150 games — don't commend him for a new deal, especially at the $1.2 million MLBTR projection. They can afford it, but it's time for the Royals to move on from Hernández.

And Harvey? Kansas City gave up too much for him to start with. In July, general manager J.J. Picollo traded Cayden Wallace, then the club's second-best prospect per MLB Pipeline, and a Competitive Balance draft pick to the Washington Nationals to get him. Harvey didn't get a chance to help the Royals during their successful stretch run — he pitched only 5.2 innings (and gave up four runs) before a back injury sidelined him for the rest of the season.

Some might think it harsh to suggest the Royals let Harvey go. Yes, he had two good seasons with the Nationals, going 2-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 38 games in 2022, and 4-4 with a 2.82 ERA and 10 saves in 2023. But his 2-4, 4.20 record in 43 pre-trade games for the Nats this season foretold what might happen when he became a Royal.

The club shouldn't be willing to pay Harvey MLBTR's $3.9 million projection. It has other bullpen options, including up-and-coming Triple-A Omaha reliever Evan Sisk, one of the prospects who the Royals ought to put on their 2025 Opening Day roster.

So who should the Royals pay to keep?