2 projected arbitration salaries KC Royals shouldn't pay, 1 they must

It won't be long before the end of the 2024 World Series officially triggers what should be a busy and productive offseason for the Kansas City Royals. Free agency starts and the major league trade market reopens the day after the Series concludes, teams must set their 40-man roster for Rule 5 Draft purposes late next month, and MLB will conduct the Rule 5 Draft on December 11.

There's also arbitration, the annual salary sweepstakes for players with enough service time to negotiate their pay, but not enough to become free agents. The Royals have 10 arbitration-eligible players — pitchers Brady Singer, Hunter Harvey, Daniel Lynch IV, Carlos Hernández, Kris Bubic, John Schreiber, Kyle Wright, and Hunter Harvey, and outfielders Kyle Isbel and MJ Melendez.

If the Royals want a player back but can't agree on his 2025 salary, the player and club will submit their respective compensation proposals to an arbitration panel which, barring a subsequent settlement, will pick one or the other amount for the player to earn next season. The Royals can also cut arbitration-eligible players loose by not offering them contracts ("non-tendering"), which makes them free agents.

So what will the arbitration process be like for the Royals this offseason, who should they pay, and which players should they let go?

Will arbitration be hard for the KC Royals?

Probably not. If MLB Trade Rumors' recently published projected arbitration awards are in the ballpark (they usually are), and barring any trades of affected players, the Royals should be able to keep most of their arbitration-eligible players with little or no difficulty, and perhaps without the need for any panel hearings. For example, expect the club to bring back Isbel and Lynch who, even if forced to hearings, will be bargains at their respective $1.1 million and $1.7 million projected salaries.

The cases of Wright and Taylor should be the same. KC signed Wright last winter knowing he'd miss this season, and Taylor missed much of 2023 and all of 2024 with injuries. MLBTR predicts both would be awarded the same salaries they made this year — $1.8 million for Wright, $1.1 million for Taylor.

The Royals will probably find paying Schreiber $2 million and Bubic $2.8 million affordable and palatable. And even if they consider handing Melendez $2.5 million to be an overpay, their obvious level of commitment to him means they'll do it.

But what about Singer, Hernández, and Harvey? Kansas City shouldn't pay two of them what MLBTR says they can make in arbitration, but should, if they have to, give one what MLBTR projects.

Who shouldn't Kansas City pay?

The KC Royals need to keep Brady Singer

Singer has had his share of peaks and valleys since breaking in, perhaps prematurely, during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season. Named the Royals' Pitcher of the Year in 2022 when he went 10-5 with a 3.23 ERA, Singer at times displays signs of brilliance, but struggles at others. He appeared to be headed for a true breakout season this year when a 4-2, 2.27 ERA in July gave him an 8-6, 2.88 record heading into the regular season's final two months.

But he seemed to tire down the stretch, lost all four of his September decisions, and finished 9-13 with a 3.71 ERA.

So, why keep Singer? It's what present circumstances should dictate. Whether Michael Wacha returns for another season in Kansas City's rotation is an open question; if he doesn't, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Singer are the only three regular starters scheduled to be back. Losing Singer — which would be a club choice because he can't test free agency until after the 2026 campaign — means Picollo will have to find at least two major league starters if Wacha leaves.

That's not a position Picollo probably relishes. Instead, he should try to sign Singer, who made $4.85 million this year, for $7 million. That failing, the Royals should be prepared to pay Singer the $8.8 million MLBTR thinks he'll get.

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