Why Royals fans shouldn't overreact to Daniel Lynch IV's rough first start back in rotation

The box score told the story of a blundering return to the Kansas City Royals rotation. Southpaw Daniel Lynch IV went from being a popular trade candidate out of the bullpen to starting against the Chicago Cubs in less than a week. While fans were wondering why Lynch was not getting the ball in the late innings, he was quietly prepping for his first formal start since 2024. This is what the injury-addled Royals are reduced to as they close out this season and try to cross the 162-game finish line.

Despite his strong bullpen results, though, that did not translate one-to-one in his start against the Cubs. Lynch cruised through the first five outs but could not get over the hump of that sixth one. By the time reliever José Cuas came to replace Lynch, Chicago had runners on the corners and taken a 2-1 lead during their two-out rally in the second inning.

Lynch carried the loss for his third of the season, and the initial reactions were rightfully not good following his outing. It also exacerbates the reality that Kansas City is running out of options in the rotation. But despite the bad box score, Kansas City should not give up on Lynch starting this season. Or maybe simply because they cannot.

Lynch as a reliever has always been one of those pitchers whose results are grand even if the process is so-so. He is a below-average strike-thrower, with his 62.8% strike rate and 43.9% in-zone rate both well below the average for relievers. But he gets outs thanks to balls in play early in his counts and not allowing hard contact. That last part is especially underrated, as Pitcher List's poor contact metric puts Lynch in the 82nd percentile for all his batted balls that are weak contact or pounded into the ground or straight to the sky. Strikeouts count the same as field outs in the box score, but one is certainly more definitive than the other.

That added variable of fielding outs is what bit Lynch in his start. The three hits he allowed, all singles, were seeing-eye singles that made their way to the outfield grass. NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong scored two on his batted ball, but that would have been the final out of the inning if not for second baseman Michael Massey's errant throw to Lynch covering first base.

Overall, the Cubs had an absurd .500 batting average on contact, more than double Lynch's season average of .243. This is where looking at the expected numbers matters, because the results deviate very far from what Lynch has done thus far in 2026. Batters carry a .294 xwOBA against Lynch this year, but the Cubs posted just a .231 mark against him on Friday. The contact they made was not good in the world of exit velocity and launch angles, but the balls were all perfectly placed to get through the infield and put pressure on Lynch.

Royals fans can't let woes of 2026 dismiss Daniel Lynch IV as starter already

If the Royals' win-loss record was flipped, I feel like Royals fans would quickly write this start off by Lynch. Dismiss it for what it is: an unlucky return to the rotation. But with so many things going wrong in the organization this year, it is easy to toss this outing on the pile that only grows before the season's conclusion.

Lynch's process was still mostly the same across his 35 pitches, especially his dominance against left-handed batters in an MLB where lefties become more and more prevalent (the league is on pace for 76,435 plate appearances by left-handed batters, blowing the 2025 record out of the water). His arsenal was clicking across the board. The Cubs' right-handed batters just got to his change a few too many times.

It is a poor first impression, but that should not doom Lynch as 2026 comes to a close. Kansas City still needs innings, and Royals fans should remember Kris Bubic's recent transition back from the bullpen in 2024 to All-Star form in 2025. That would be the best-case outcome for Lynch, but the bullpen mindset being married with starter innings helped elevate Bubic, leading to hope for Lynch doing the same.

The Virginia product will have to wash this start from his mind quickly, and maybe take a look at his attack plan against right-handed batters going forward. Lynch is slated to take the bump next on Wednesday night in Los Angeles in the series finale versus the Dodgers.

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