Why hasn't Bobby Witt Jr. been an MVP-caliber hitter for the KC Royals in 2025?

May the real 'Bobby Baseball' please stand up?
New York Yankees v Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees v Kansas City Royals | Jay Biggerstaff/GettyImages

Bobby Witt Jr is in a league of his own. I have had the privilege of watching and covering him since he entered the major leagues. A human being should not be able to do the things I’ve seen him pull off on the diamond.

He put the baseball world on notice last season when he finished second in the MVP voting behind Aaron Judge. He even showed up to the Home Run Derby and gave a dramatic performance that came down to the last second, although he finished second best once again that night.

He established himself as arguably the best baseball player on Earth, and his production spoke for itself.

2025 has been another stellar season for the young phenom. He’s hitting .282 and is tied for third in the MLB in steals, with 21 to go along with his eight homers and 38 RBIs. He also holds a respectable 120 wRC+ (72nd in MLB) and a .201 ISO (57th in MLB).

But those are not “Bobby Baseball” numbers. While any team would drool over themselves at the chance to sign Witt Jr. to their roster, those aren’t MVP-caliber numbers. He set the bar extremely high last season, and he may be paying for that right now as his recent struggles are making us double-take who we’re watching at the dish.

Bobby Witt Jr. uncharacteristically cold at the plate for KC Royals in 2025

Witt’s cold stretch on offense has lingered longer than I expected. He’s hitting .229 in his last 30 games and only has three home runs at Kauffman Stadium all season. The hunter has become the hunted, as pitchers have adjusted to Witt after his breakout season in '24.

He’s no longer sneaking up on anyone. Teams are ready for him and geared to prevent him from hurting them at the plate.

Last year, the league threw him a breaking ball (Slider, Curve, Knuckle, Sweeper, Slurve) 35.9% of the time. This season, they have reduced his breaking ball diet to 30.4%.

It makes sense because he hit .326 with 11 home runs off of those pitches in 2024. He had an xSLG of .484, but his actual SLG was .555. His timing in the zone is exquisite on breaking balls, as his bat path stays in the zone longer than most, giving him a high chance to get barrels.

He’s hitting .280 of breaking balls this year with an xSLG of .482, a far cry from what he did a season ago. He had 38 strikeouts on breaking balls last season; this year, he already has 20.

When you look deeper into the batted ball data, you see that he's struggling with timing, evidenced by a 3.2% decrease in his Pull-Air% from last season.

Pulling the ball even a few percentage points less could be part of what’s keeping him from hitting as many homers as we’re accustomed to seeing. That, along with an uptick in fastballs seen from ‘24 to ‘25 (53.1 % to 56.4%).

Perhaps that has led to Witt Jr.’s barrel percentage drop from 14.3% to 11.7%.

Fastballs weren't an issue for him last season, as he hit .340 against them, but that has dropped significantly to .284. Again, good, but not up to the absurd standards he's set for himself.

Royals need “Bobby Baseball” version of Witt Jr to keep postseason dreams alive

Of course, there are reasons to believe that a turnaround for Bobby is on the horizon - just look at his two-hit performance on Tuesday night against Texas. While there are concerns with some of the batted ball data and power numbers, his hard-hit rate has remained relatively unchanged from last season.

Historically, Witt Jr. sees a surge in production later in the summer. His career splits show that his wRC+ reaches it's peak in the month of July. Last season he had his best power months in July and August blasting 17 dingers. He hit just 12 from March to June.

We should expect Bobby Witt Jr. to start crushing fastballs closer to the way he historically has fairly soon. Looking beyond his stellar performance on Tuesday, further encouraging evidence of a breakout can be found after he hit with a runner in scoring position in the 3-2 loss to the Athletics on June 15 . The bat speed has remained elite, and speed never goes in a slump.

His xBA in ‘25 falls more in line with his numbers from ‘23 when he hit .276, 30 homers, and had an OPS of .814. Those are great numbers for 99% of the league, but when you explode like Witt Jr did last season, they look almost, dare I say, pedestrian?

He might just be coming down to Earth a bit this season, and that’s okay. I won’t be upset with because he reached Mars instead of Jupiter this time around. If anyone on this team has earned some grace to figure himself out a bit, it’s him.

The Royals have needed more 2-run and 3-run homers to give their pitching staff more margin for error. Instead, it’s been a lot of keeping the line moving without the line actually moving.

Witt has been at the forefront of this disappointing offense in Kansas City. It brings me no pleasure to admit that he’s been part of why the offense has underperformed.

We also have to realize that the performance of the guys around him is baked into his mortal-like numbers this season.

Witt Jr. is having a tougher time generating offense for the Royals, and the team has suffered for it. It’s unfair to ask Bobby to be MVP caliber every year, but unfortunately, that is what is required for the Royals to have the best chance to win.

Perhaps Tuesday's strong showing is a step in the right direction for him and the Royals in their quest to get back on track.