The KC Royals shouldn't fight the Yankees for this free agent reliever

The trade and free agent markets are still teeming with talent, but consistent with their holiday season history, the Kansas City Royals have been quiet this Christmas week. They've acquired no one, nothing publicly known suggests any deals are imminent, and a move they might be tempted to consider — reuniting with free agent reliever Tim Hill — is one they shouldn't pursue.

Passing on Hill may seem strange for the Royals, who, despite finding their way back to the postseason in 2024, still have bullpen wrinkles to iron out before the 2025 campaign begins. Hill has much surface appeal — he figured prominently in the New York Yankees' run to the 2024 World Series and pitched superbly when the team got there.

But as dominating as he was after New York picked him up in late June, that performance makes up only a chapter in Hill's seven-year major league career. His is a book not yet finished, but there's enough in the other chapters to give Kansas City at least some pause.

Bringing back former Royal Tim Hill isn't something the club needs to do

Assuming the Royals are tempted to check in on Hill, who the Yankees are reportedly interested in re-signing, they should move cautiously.

Yes, Hill's 2.05 ERA in 44 innings was precisely what the Yankees needed when they signed him and put him to work on June 20, and he was charged with only one run in 10 postseason appearances. It was indeed excellent work, probably the best of his career, and did much to mitigate concerns over the poor work he did for the Chicago White Sox before they released him on June 18.

But it didn't erase that substandard effort from baseball's memory.

Hill, signed by Chicago as a free agent after posting a marginal (especially for a reliever) 4.18 ERA in four seasons with the San Diego Padres, didn't live up to even his inexpensive one-year $1.8 million deal. By the time the White Sox let him go, he'd struggled to a 5.87 ERA and 71 ERA+ in 27 appearances and, uncharacteristically for a pitcher with a 2.88 BB/9, walked 10 in 23 innings.

And those numbers came fast on the heels of the disappointing 1-4, career-worst 5.48 ERA season he had for the Padres in 2023, after which they chose not to offer him a 2024 contract.

Hill has had his big league moments, however. After breaking in with the Royals with a 1-4, 4.53 ERA across 70 games in 2018, he lowered his ERA to 3.63 and had a quite serviceable 1.109 WHIP in 2019. Other than his half-season stint with the White Sox, his control has been good, and his 68.1% ground ball rate opens eyes.

But his recent success with the Yankees doesn't mean Kansas City needs to pursue him this winter. As the peaks and valleys of his career prove, he's prone to inconsistency, and that's something the Royals' bullpen already has a bit too much of. He turns 35 at about the same time spring training opens for pitchers and catchers. The Royals already have a good left-handed reliever in Sam Long, and southpaws Ángel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch IV show promise.

And baseball's quirky economics suggest Hill's half-season performance with the Yankees will command a significant bump-up from his $1.8 million 2024 salary. That's money general manager J.J. Picollo should spend elsewhere — like for part of what it will take to sign the middle-of-the-order bat he wants and badly needs.

Hill might work out for the Royals, but now isn't the time to find out. Picollo doesn't need to fight the Yankees for him.