Signing Jac Caglianone to an extension could be a massive bargain if the Royals act fast

A relatively recent trend across MLB has been pre-arbitration contracts. Teams have been handing out large, guaranteed figures to young players well before they reach free agency to keep salaries down from what they could be at arbitration, and to keep the player under contract longer than the six years of service time they would normally get.

The Kansas City Royals have already done this twice, signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a massive payday, and more recently, inking Maikel Garcia on a multi-year deal. This offseason, Kansas City needs to contemplate doing so again, but this time, with Jac Caglianone.

Caglianone, the former sixth overall pick, showed off his draft pedigree during his first full season in the big leagues this past season. The right fielder/ first baseman hit .289 with an .834 OPS in 143 games played. He hit 23 home runs, 32 doubles, and drove in 75 runs. He was also among the best in baseball this season in average exit velocity, hard-hit rarte, and bat speed, showing off his prodigious power.

Even though Caglianone got a taste of the majors in 2025, he still has just one year of service time under his belt, meaning the Royals maintain another five years of team control. They could play out those five years and try to re-sign him when he becomes a free agent, but at this rate, he could be one of the best bats in baseball, and looking at a major payday.

Should the Royals roll the dice and sign Jac Caglianone to a contract extension after his rookie year?

The Royals have plenty of baseline contracts to work off. Many outfielders have received pre-arb contracts, including Ronald Acuna Jr., Jackson Chourio, and Julio Rodriguez. A solid comparison, however, is the Athletics Tyler Soderstrom, who signed his seven-year, $86 million extension after putting numbers similar to Caglianone during his first year in the bigs. Soderstrom also played some first base that season.

Other notable outfielders, like Jackson Merrill and Michael Harris Jr., are full-time center fielders, which makes comparisons harder. That stated, with contract inflation, Cags would likely beat the deal that Harris got in 2023 (eight years, $72 million), but would be below Merrill's (nine years, $135 million).

A solid estimate would probably come in somewhere in the neighborhood of seven years and $95 million, with a club option for an eighth season. That would buy out two or three years of free agency and keep his AAV around $13.5 million, which would be great for the Royals.

The deal would surely be backloaded, meaning his salary would increase over time, giving him closer to fair market value as the contract aged. Even with the club option, the contact would still allow Caglianone to hit free agency at 31 or 32 years old, permitting him to sign one more large contract before his career comes to a close.

Kansas City really needs to consider making this sort of move sooner rather than later. Many small-market teams do deals like this because it helps to save them money in the long run. It would keep two of the most important players on the team around at least through the end of the 2020s (Bobby Witt has his first opt-out in 2031). Even though Kansas City spends more than a lot of small-market teams, if they want sustained success, moves like this are crucial.

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