Should non-tendered Nationals closer be a free agency target for KC Royals?

In a surprising move on November 22, the Washington Nationals non-tendered closer Kyle Finnegan, sending the newly-minted All-Star to free agency. For the Kansas City Royals and other teams looking to add a high-leverage reliever to their roster for 2025, the Nationals' decision adds another option to the market.

In 2024, Finnegan posted a 3.68 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 63.2 innings of work. He closed a career-high 38 saves in 43 opportunities (88%), recorded an average fastball velocity of 97.2 mph to land in the 92nd percentile of all qualified relievers, and received his first All-Star selection after pitcher Ryan Helsley was injured.

So should the Royals consider adding Finnegan to their bullpen for 2025?

KC Royals should avoid signing Kyle Finnegan

The Royals have a rather desperate need for at least one bullpen arm before the 2025 season. Amongst the 30 teams in MLB, Kansas City's bullpen ranked a disappointing 20th in ERA (4.13), 23rd in WHIP (1.33), and 30th in strikeouts (463) this year — but is Finnegan the answer to their problems?

While there's no denying that Finnegan's save percentage is remarkable, other areas of his performance leave plenty to be desired. In 2024, both his 22.1% strikeout rate and .261 xBA were below average for relievers across MLB, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio trended in the wrong direction for the third consecutive season (3.18 in 2022, 2.63 in 2023, and 2.50 in 2024).

As well as allowing 1.27 home runs per nine innings pitched, Finnegan yielded extremely hard-hit balls when batters made contact. In 2024, the batted balls against him had an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph, putting Finnegan in the bottom 1% of all qualified relief pitchers.

To be blunt, it's clear the 33-year-old's 88% save rate has inflated his actual value. Having earned a $5.1 million salary in 2024, Finnegan was expected to receive a significant pay increase in arbitration this winter, with MLB Trade Rumors' Anthony Franco predicting the right-hander would secure $8.6 million. The Nationals' decision to non-tender him may have been surprising from the outside, but perhaps they simply looked at his overall stats — not just his save percentage — and decided they couldn't justify overpaying at arbitration.

And unless they can somehow secure an extremely team-friendly deal, the Royals should make the same call about signing Finnegan this winter.

Now that he's is a free agent, Sportrac projects Finnegan will land a 2-year, $24.9 million deal this offseason. If correct, the right-hander's average annual value (AAV) would be an impressive $12.5 million, which is substantially higher than those predicted for a number of other free agent relief options, including Jeff Hoffman and Kirby Yates.

At the end of the day, the Royals have stronger options available to them — both in free agency and via trade — for less money. The team should explore other possibilities before turning to Finnegan, who may end up being just yet another up-and-down reliever for them to avoid using in high-leverage situations.