Saturday's KC Royals injury news could shake up muddled trade deadline picture

Seth Lugo, whose excellent 16-9, 3.00 pitching performance wasn't enough to land the 2024 American League Cy Young award only because Detroit's Tarik Skubal happened to pitch in the same league, hasn't missed much of a beat this year. His 5-5 record isn't as stellar, but still isn't bad for a pitcher whose teammates average only 1.6 runs when he loses, and the 5.2 scoreless innings he tossed in the Royals' 9-5 victory over the Dodgers Saturday lowered his ERA to 2.74.

Lugo's quality pitching, and the fact he's eligible for free agency this winter unless he exercises his player option, probably make him the Royal most likely to be dealt before the July 31 trade deadline. Whether the club is a seller or buyer next month remains to be seen, but it's tough to imagine it keeping Lugo in either event. The risk of him leaving, which seems high at this point, means general manager J.J. Picollo won't want to see him depart without getting something in return. And KC may not land the offensive boost it needs for a successful stretch run without sacrificing Lugo to get it.

It makes sense, then, if Lugo tops the Royals' list of most valuable trade chips. But after the news that broke Saturday, they may have to seriously reconsider any potential Lugo deals — unfortunately, the health of three Kansas City starters could complicate any plans Picollo may have to deal his star pitcher.

How injuries complicate the Seth Lugo trade picture for the KC Royals

Trading Lugo, presumably for a productive big league bat, will leave a gaping hole in Kansas City's rotation. An internal replacement would be the most expedient, cost-effective, and logical solution, but the pickings are slim ... and may have narrowed even more Saturday.

That's because former Atlanta 21-game winner Kyle Wright. who the Royals traded Jackson Kowar to the Braves for in November of 2023, appears to be facing another roadblock as he tries to work his way back to the majors since a shoulder injury ruined most of his 2023 campaign. MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers reported Saturday afternoon that Wright, whose Kansas City debut seemed almost imminent, missed his scheduled Friday night start for Triple-A Omaha after right oblique soreness struck during his pregame warmup.

Wright will head to Kansas City for a Monday MRI. Obviously, oblique issues can't be taken lightly, and could knock Wright out of the running to replace Lugo should Kansas City choose to shop him on the trade market.

Rogers also had bad news about Alec Marsh. Marsh, 9-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 26 games for the club last year, has been rehabbing from a spring training shoulder issue, but was recently shut down from pitching work again and, like Wright, is preparing for reevaluation.

And then there's Cole Ragans. Fortunately, Rogers' Saturday coverage didn't include anything negative about Ragans — or any news about him, for that matter — but nothing from any other source suggests he's close to rejoining the Royals after a rotator cuff strain forced him to the Injured List June 11. His return clearly isn't imminent.

Where do these injuries leave the KC Royals?

In a quandary. As is the case with any midseason single-game result, Saturday's win didn't clarify Kansas City's playoff chances. What's clear, though, is that despite trailing AL Central leader Detroit by 12.5 games, the Royals are a mere 3.5 games behind in the tight race for a Wild Card spot. And it was just such a spot that allowed them entry into the 2024 playoffs.

So, declaring this team dead in the playoff-chase waters is premature, meaning Picollo isn't in a position to switch his long search for more offensive punch to one for prospects. But the likelihood that he'll have to give up Lugo to get a booming bat ratchets up the pressure on KC's GM — sacrificing Lugo probably means weakening the formidable strength of the starting rotation manager Matt Quatraro relies on so heavily to counterbalance a chronically weak offense.

And the minor league options don't inspire much confidence. Yes, there's major league veteran Rich Hill, whose 5-5, 4.00 minor league record might not translate into the kind of big league success the Royals need. Three of Hill's Triple-A Omaha teammates offer even less promise —Chandler Champlain is 2-4 with an awful 8.63 ERA, Thomas Hatch is 3-5 with a 5.20 ERA, and John Gant has a 7.96 ERA after Indianapolis battered him for seven runs (six earned) in 1.2 innings Saturday night.

And not a single starter at Double-A Northwest Arkansas is ready for the majors.

Look, then, for the Royals to delay any potential Lugo deal for at least a couple of weeks. They may have to simply hope their offense wakes up soon, which would make trading Lugo a bit less risky, and a lot more palatable.