Royals' choice to keep Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo looks wiser after rotation's devastating injury news

The Kansas City Royals were quiet at the trade deadline, with their most controversial issue being their choice to not capitalize on the immense value of their veteran starting duo in Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo. The reason for their reluctance was reportedly that they saw them as too crucial to their 2027 contending ambitions, and to a degree it's hard to argue with the logic - regardless of how frustrating it might be.

Kris Bubic is now officially out of the Royals' starting picture after being traded to the Dodgers and the likes of Cole Ragans, Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna went on the IL early on in the season due to elbow surgeries. Pair that with inconsistency from arms like Noah Cameron and the Royals have a lot of work to do to get this starting staff ready for a run in 2027. And after it was revealed the Royals have lost two more names to Tommy John, their rotation outlook has gotten much bleaker.

MLB.com's Anne Rogers reported on Tuesday evening that both Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila would be undergoing Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. Not only is their 2026 season over, but at this late in the season, it's not egregious to think that their 2027 season could be over too.

After landing on the paternity list at the beginning of July, Kolek was then placed on the injured list on July 19 with a right flexor strain before the Tommy John news came about. Avila's news was a lot more sudden having started on Aug. 1 before being sent to the injured list the following day with right forearm tightness.

Since coming over at the trade deadline in 2025, Kolek had proven to be an effective middle-to-low-end rotation piece. He's followed up his 1.91 ERA with them down the stretch last season with a serviceable 4.50 ERA.

Avila hasn't looked nearly as effective with a 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, however his arsenal has some real tools to be excited about as he continues to develop, it's now just a matter of whether he gets a chance to use them in the rotation or moves back to the bullpen when he returns.

Who are Royals left with in 2027 rotation after Stephen Kolek, Luinder Avila injury news?

With Ragans, Bergert and Kudrna all not options for Opening Day and now Kolek and Avila added to that list the rotation is as thin as ever.

The Royals will hope that the recent changes that they've instituted with Cameron continue to bare great results. And now that they've made their decision to keep Wacha and Lugo they'll have to rely on them more than ever to continue to veteran rocks. At this point, looking anything less than do right now would still have them behind the eight-ball in 2027.

Looking deeper on the 40-man roster and in the farm system, Steven Zobac remains an option in theory, but he's once again had injury issues in Double-A this season. And when on the mound he's continued to struggle, posting a 5.61 ERA, 6.74 FIP and 1.40 WHIP in nine starts with the Naturals.

Then there's the like of Mitch Spence, who's had his issues when called upon to pitch in the majors this season, and Mason Black, who's been more of a relief option since coming to Kansas City in the offseason. And given his injury issues, there's still a question of whether Alec Marsh will be ready and how he'll look if he does manage to come back for the first time since 2024.

After that, free agency is going to have to be a factor this winter, because it's been a series of outcasted veteran minor league free agent options like Vince Velazquez or younger farm hands like Ben Sears who may just be "Quadruple-A" guys on their best day.

At the moment, it's looks like Picollo's controversial decision to not cash in on his prime trade assets in Wacha and Lugo has received some vindication to a degree for the time being. But the Royals shouldn't be celebrating about their retaining assets, because they have a ton of work to do to build out a postseason rotation after Tuesday's brutal news.

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