Predicting the Royals' best Opening Day bullpen ahead of spring training

Pitching is the currency of baseball, and the Royals have it in spades. You could go as far as to say their rotation is their team identity. From Ragans to Cameron, every starter is capable of dominating a lineup.

It’s difficult to improve on their stellar rotation, but it’s the bullpen this season that could take the largest stride forward. Their bullpen was tied for sixth in the league last year with a 3.63 ERA and can be even stronger in 2026.

The Royals added Matt Strahm, Nick Mears, and Alex Lange to a group that already has the reigning saves leader in Carlos Estevez and flamethrowing setup man Lucas Erceg.

The back end of the pen is solidified with Strahm, Erceg, and Estevez anchoring those high-leverage spots, but how will the rest of the bullpen get ironed out? Let's examine how roles could be defined when the regular season begins.

Predicting how the Royals bullpen could take shape for 2026

High-leverage: Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, Matt Strahm

Estévez returns as closer, as his 42 saves paced all of baseball. He proved to be well worth the price tag the Royals paid to bring him to KC last February.

Any time I get to talk about Carlos Estévez, I get a chance to insert, easily, the best GIF the Kansas City Royals have ever created for the internet.

You could say that he was wildly effective, (An 8.2% walk rate is high for a closer) so it will be interesting to see if Estévez can repeat or come close to what he did in 2025.

Erceg had a good season in 2025, delivering a 2.64 ERA in 61.1 innings. The stuff didn’t quite play as electric as it did in 204, as his SO/9 fell to 7.04 in '25 compared to his 10.51 mark in '24.

Strahm comes to the Royals from the Phillies, where he made a name for himself as an elite arm in late innings. Drafted by Kansas City in 2012, Strahm returns to the place that gave him his first break into the Majors.

Strahm isn’t just a lefty specialist; righties hit just .196 against him in 42.1 innings. He’s an All-Star and at 34, brings postseason experience, big-market confidence, and a 2.74 ERA to the Royals.

High-leverage to Medium-leverage: John Schreiber, Nick Mears, Alex Lange

Schreiber and Mears will slot in where they fit in as middle relief arms. Both have strong track records of limiting walks, and Mears specializes in inducing chase.

Mears chase rate ranked him in the 93rd percentile in baseball. Schreiber will enter his third year with the Royals and has posted a 3.73 ERA in 115.2 innings since joining Kansas City.

Lange was a free-agent pickup this offseason and has earned strong reports from Spring Training so far. He’s coming back from lat surgery and didn’t return to baseball until last August.

He possesses a high 90s fastball and had 26 saves and a 3.68 ERA in 66 innings in 2023. His curveball and changeup registered a 48.2% and 45.7% whiff rate.

Medium-leverage to low-leverage: Steven Cruz, Daniel Lynch IV, James McArthur, Héctor Neris

Lynch will serve as the second lefty, so his spot in the pen is likely reserved. He wasn’t exactly nails in his relief appearances last year, but he’ll get a chance to work out of the pen exclusively instead of being a spot starter.

Cruz showed flashes of brilliance last season and will look to do so again. His high-octane fastball should play even better in his second full season. If he can get more swing and misses on his fastball, it will make his slider even more devastating. The league hit a measly .156 against it with a .169 wOBA.

I expect James McArthur will get another chance to carve out a role in the pen after a lost 2025. Don't be shocked if you see Héctor Neris get some innings early in the season if he looks good during camp. Early feedback on Neris has been positive to say the least.

He spent time with the Angels, Braves, and Astros last season before being designated for assignment by the Astros last August. He was inconsistent, but he can still throw gas and had an impressive strikeout rate at 28.2%.

Competing for a spot: Jose Cuas, Eric Cerantola, Eli Morgan, Helcris Olivarez, Dennis Colleran, Bailey Falter

The one to keep an eye on from this grouping is 22-year-old Dennis Colleran. He's rising the prospect ladder and will eventually make his way into MLB's team top 30 list this year, although Baseball America has Colleran as the Royals' No. 29 prospect.

He started 2025 in Low-A and moved up quickly before ending his season in Double-A. Now he'll get his chance to show the Royals what he can do as a non-roster invitee.

A seventh-round pick by the Royals in the 2024 MLB Draft, he has what Baseball America says is the best fastball in Kansas City's entire system. We're talking triple digits, boys and girls.

Reports rave about his heater, but he'll need to improve his 12.8% walk rate if he wants to keep climbing and stick in the Major Leagues. He can be a late-inning nightmare if he can throw more strikes in 2026.

Bailey Falter is another guy who could find himself in the bullpen or as a spot starter. Reports from Surprise are praising his efforts with new pitching coach Mike McFerran.

Triple-A starter who could get plucked for bullpen: Luinder Avila

This is the player I'm most excited to watch this spring. Avila, the Royals' No. 14 prospect at the end of last season according to Pipeline, has electric stuff. He dazzled in his limited appearances last year and showed he had the goods to compete in a Major League bullpen right away.

Avila was used as a starter in the minors before his call-up, and the Royals might want him to keep him stretched out so he can be a spot starter in case of injury. His stint as a reliever may have turned some heads around the organization.

It's rare to see a young pitcher (only 24 years old) with a fastball averaging 96 mph use their breaking ball as much as Avila. His curveball is easily the best in the organization, and it ate the 96 times he threw it.

It was nearly untouchable, yielding a ridiculous .095 average, albeit in just 14 innings. Its spin rate of 2875 RPM, combined with a 50% whiff rate on, tells the story of how devastating it was.