KC Royals: Power ranking AL Central teams ahead of spring training

5. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have had a very Royals-esque offseason, adding the cheapest solutions to the 26-man roster and adding former Royals players Martín Maldonado and Nicky Lopez to the roster. New general manager Chris Getz possibly trading away ace Dylan Cease was the team's biggest offseason story, but Chicago will likely retain Cease until the MLB trade deadline nears.

They did add Erick Fedde, Michael Soroka, and Chris Flexen to the starting rotation. But Fedde and Flexen are hardly inspiring options, as FanGraph's Dan Szymborski said they "feel like pitchers acquired mainly so that games will actually end."

Chicago still has legitimate All-Star contenders in Cease and outfielder Luis Robert Jr., but they cannot carry this team to 65 wins this season. There is still time for Chicago to add more talent to the roster, but they do not seem to be in a hurry. The White Sox added plenty of new blood to the coaching staff, including former Royals catcher Drew Butera as catching coach.

Pedro Grifol will have his hands full in his second year as Chicago's manager. He did finish with a 61-101 record in his debut managerial season, and the front office's tone doesn't call for immediate improvement. Chicago will finish 2024 with another 100-loss season, with more fingers pointing to Grifol as the problem rather than Getz.

4. Detroit Tigers

While it may be unwise to underestimate the Detroit Tigers under the leadership of manager A.J. Hinch, their current roster has a very low chance of performing well even by the standards of the AL Central. Although they finished second in the division with a record of 78-84 last season, it is important to note that their previous season was marked with a record of 66-96. Although various sportsbooks predict that the team will again win 78 or more games this season, there is not much evidence to support such a positive outlook.

Pythagorean records are hardly gospel, but they tell fans how lucky a team was given their runs scored and runs allowed. Detroit was the second-luckiest team in the American League, according to Bill James' formula, finishing with a Pythagorean record five wins worse than their actual record. Their 2023 win-loss record could feel inflated, especially considering their 19-11 record to close out the year.

Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda simply cannot replace the level of production that Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez brought to the table in 2023. That lost production is not being talked about enough, thanks to Tarik Skubal's emergence and other enticing yet unproven options rounding out the rotation.

With Miguel Cabrera's retirement, the Tigers will be looking for a new franchise player to take the reins. Spencer Torkelson has shown a lot of potential, but he still needs to prove himself on the field before earning that title. Even with Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter's promising performances, the team's starting rotation is likely to struggle this season. Injuries and regression will likely result in the Tigers ending up in the bottom half of their division. While Torkelson and Skubal can certainly make significant contributions, the team will need more than just them to recapture their 2023 momentum.

3. Kansas City Royals

The Royals have been as active as anybody in the sluggish free-agent market, adding slugger Hunter Renfroe to the middle of the lineup and Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton to the pitching staff. They have Bobby Witt Jr., a rising star, as the face of the team, and two potential breakout players in 2024 are left-hander Cole Ragans and hitter Nelson Velázquez.

The Royals have made some impactful moves this offseason to strengthen their bullpen by adding experienced players. They signed two World Series champion relievers, Chris Stratton and Will Smith. Additionally, they acquired Kyle Wright, a starting pitcher, and Nick Anderson, a reliever, from the Atlanta Braves. Out of all the AL Central teams, Kansas City's words and actions both signal immediate change for the better.

“We are not going to settle,” general manager J.J. Picollo said this offseason. “We don’t like talking about this in these terms, but when guys have options, we have opportunities to find players who can beat them out for positions.”

The Royals will need to improve their record by almost 30 wins to be a contender in their division. While this kind of improvement is not impossible, it is a difficult feat to achieve, and it would be unfair to expect it from the Royals. Only five teams have managed to gain 31 or more wins in a single season since 1969, so it's not something that happens often. It's worth noting, however, that the Baltimore Orioles improved their record by 31 wins between 2021 and 2022, so it is possible.

Kansas City needs to back up their offseason promises with actual results if they wants to earn the respect of skeptics. Additionally, there are two other teams in the division with a proven track record of success and strong rosters that will make it difficult for the Royals to come out on top. Nevertheless, the Royals should not be underestimated in the divisional race.

2. Cleveland Guardians

These are not the Cleveland Guardians of old. Ideastream Public Media reporter Terry Pluto put the hurdles of the 2024 squad best in January.

"The Guardians, for the third year, will be the youngest team in Major League Baseball, at least as the roster is right now," Pluto said. They'll be one of the lower-paid ones. [Stephen Vogt] is replacing, whom I would say is the best manager in Cleveland baseball history, and that's Terry Francona, a guy that in 11 years here, (has) three manager of the year titles, six trips to the playoffs, you know, all that stuff."

It's hard to argue with Pluto's analysis. Francona, a future Hall of Famer, is no longer managing Cleveland and guiding the team through the recent roster changes. Although Cleveland has had a reputation for frequent transactions in recent years, Francona's teams have consistently produced wins regardless. Vogt will have to learn to do the same on the fly after Cleveland stumbled in 2023 with a 76-86 record.

Picking against Cleveland has backfired several times in recent years, and they have the track record to be in the divisional race. They still field an extremely productive lineup, led by José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez. There are also several high-power prospects waiting in the wings, like Bo Naylor and Brayan Rocchio. Add them to a young but stellar rotation led by Triston McKenzie and Shane Bieber, there is plenty of talent in Cleveland.

The Guardians have perhaps the strongest pitching staff in the division unless they choose to trade away Bieber or Emmanuel Clase. Even if that happens, they still have a lineup with a lot of potential and a well-stocked farm system. Although Cleveland is going through a transitional phase, they should still have the ability to win in 2024.

1. Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have had an extremely quiet offseason ahead of spring training. Only two additions have been made to the 40-man roster this offseason. Hard-throwing reliever Josh Staumont was signed while he recovers from thoracic outlet surgery, and Ryan Jensen was claimed off waivers from the Miami Marlins. But, the limited additions and notable losses may not make Minnesota vulnerable.

Superstar Carlos Correa remains among the best shortstops in baseball and leads the Twins by example. He should have another effective year at the plate, but he is not alone. Twins fans are very excited for a full season of third baseman Royce Lewis, the top overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft. He amassed 2.4 fWAR in only 58 games last season and further established himself with a great postseason performance.

Edouard Julien, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler all figure to be key parts of the lineup. The contributions from Byron Buxton though may be the biggest wildcard. He had limited effectiveness in 85 games last season, struggling with injuries. If he can recapture his 2021 and 2022 forms, the Twins lineup could be among the AL's best. If not, Minnesota will have to plan around the remainder of his seven-year, $100 million contract.

The starting lineup notably lost Sonny Gray and Maeda to free agency this offseason. Gray was an elite pitcher, but the rotation remains strong. Pablo López and Joe Ryan lead the rotation while Bailey Ober continues to go underrated around MLB. Minnesota needs to find quality options as their fourth and fifth starter in the rotation, but that will be sorted out in spring training.

The Twins reached finally ended their postseason losing streak last season and remain the favorite to win the AL Central. There are conceivable ways they will struggle in 2024, but they have less to prove than their AL Central counterparts.