No, this outfielder isn't ready for the KC Royals 40-man roster (or MLB)

Baseball is full of long-held—and often debatable—numerical beliefs: that a .300 batting average is merely good, not great; that sacrifice bunts offer more reward than risk; that Steve Bartman single-handedly doomed the Cubs’ World Series hopes, even though Chicago surrendered eight runs after the play and lost Game 7 anyway; and that players peak at age 27. Bill James, the father of sabermetrics, popularized that last myth, and it still sticks around despite studies showing no single season defines a player’s prime. That lore may explain why so many Kansas City Royals fans are clamoring to promote outfielder John Rave, but his current performance makes it clear he isn’t ready to help Kansas City at the major-league level, like other minor league names can.

Since the Royals drafted Rave in the fifth round of 2019, he’s teetered on the edge of their top-30 prospect list. This spring marked the third straight year he earned a big-league camp invite—and the Illinois State alum delivered yet another strong showing in Arizona. It’s just the latest chapter of Rave outshining his peers in the minors, fueling a growing chorus of Royals fans demanding he finally get his shot in the big leagues.

Rave’s 2024 campaign was impossible to ignore. He set a career high with 131 games for Triple-A Omaha, slashing .259/.346/.470 ( .816 OPS) while scoring 93 runs, ripping 32 doubles, legging out five triples, crushing 21 homers, 60 RBI, and swiping 17 bases. His 21 long balls tied Spencer Nivens for the organizational lead—unexpected pop that caught everyone’s attention. Even across all of baseball, just 18 big leaguers hit at least 30 doubles, 20 homers, and swiped 15 bases in 2024; Rave was one of only four minor leaguers to join that club. Those back-of-the-card numbers screamed that he was more than ready for the next level.

Full transparency, I made the case for Rave to join Kansas City after the rosters expanded last September. The outfield was dreadful, much like this year, but Rave was producing much more at the plate. He was a well-above-average batter, according to wRC+, and could have provided the Royals some solid on-base production further down the lineup. But things are different now.

The numbers just don't back up the KC Royals promoting John Rave.

While the calls for Rave haven't quieted, his bat has so far in 2025. His .238/.326/.400 line this season is a big step back from his 2024 numbers, while the walks have dipped and the strikeouts have jumped. All that doesn't even account for his performance since Apr. 13, where he has a measely .347 OPS and 2 wRC+ across 36 plate appearances. While Rave has a solid glove all over the Omaha outfield (at least four starts at each position through 18 games), the Royals have plenty of outfielders who can do that already. What the big-league club needs right now is a bat.

Rave’s 11 stolen bases put him third in the International League, and his 18 runs scored rank in the top ten—but the deeper metrics tell a different story. His .315 xwOBA sits 78th among qualified Triple-A outfielders, trailing former Storm Chasers Nate Eaton (67th) and CJ Alexander (73rd). Even within Omaha’s own lineup, he’s squarely middle-of-the-pack. Bottom line: despite the flashes on the basepaths, Rave’s overall performance so far this season has been exactly that—middle of the road.

Fans banking on Rave to step in and instantly spark the Royals’ offense might want to check the Storm Chasers’ lineup first—Joey Wiemer, Harold Castro and Luke Maile are all hitting better than Rave right now. That’s not to say he’ll never be big-league ready, but it does underscore that he still needs to prove he can deliver at Kansas City’s level.

Early-season rust or mechanical tweaks can slow anyone down—after all, Rave’s best months in 2024 were May and June. But so far, neither the box score nor what we’ve seen on the field screams that he’s ready to help the big-league club.