KC Royals rotation battle fizzles out before spring training heats up

If a Kansas City Royals fan heads to a major sports outlet for a team outlook, they’ll likely find one of three recurring storylines. First, Bobby Witt Jr. is now a household name, a bona fide superstar. Second, the Royals' outfield struggles remain glaring, standing out as one of the most obvious weaknesses in all of baseball. But the third storyline is one Royals fans may take for granted — Kansas City’s wealth of starting pitching talent.

The Royals boasted two of the AL’s best starters last season in Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, both of whom earned Cy Young votes and helped lead Kansas City back to the postseason. The front office prioritized stability in the rotation this winter, extending Michael Wacha and bringing back Michael Lorenzen. With those four rotation spots locked in, the battle for the final spot was shaping up to be a fierce competition.

But that competition never really materialized.

The KC Royals rotation race feels settled weeks ahead of Opening Day

Heading into spring training, the Royals had a deep field of contenders for that fifth and final rotation spot. Kris Bubic was transitioning back to the rotation after a strong bullpen return in 2024. Alec Marsh won the fifth starter role last season and was looking to defend his spot. Daniel Lynch IV showed promise as a reliever but the organization still saw him as a starter. Noah Cameron and Luinder Avila were intriguing prospects with outside chances, while Ross Stripling and Kyle Wright were wild cards with uncertain futures.

But fate had other plans.

Marsh and Wright never got a real shot, as injuries sapped their spring momentum before they could even step on the mound. Marsh has been dealing with a sore shoulder, only throwing his first bullpen on March 3. Meanwhile, Wright hasn’t pitched since 2023 and suffered a hamstring strain in camp, delaying his Royals debut.

With those two sidelined, the on-field competition quickly tilted in one direction.

While several pitchers have flashed intriguing stuff, Bubic has quietly taken control of the race. His spring stats don’t jump off the page, but his pitch-level data tells the real story.

• His four-seam velocity uptick from his bullpen stint is holding steady in a starter's workload.
• His slider has been baffling right-handed hitters, a key development for his arsenal evolution.
• His changeup remains a strong pairing, keeping hitters off balance.

Lynch has had solid results, posting a 0.857 WHIP and six strikeouts in seven innings, but he still lacks a true out pitch — something that’s crucial for sustained success in a starting role. While Cameron and Avila have had their moments, they haven’t done enough to force their way deeper into the mix.

What was supposed to be a thrilling battle for the final rotation spot has quietly wrapped itself up before mid-March. Bubic has handled business, while injuries and inconsistency eliminated most of his challengers.

For Royals fans, this is a good problem to have, but it takes some of the excitement out of the competition. What could have been a tight, last-minute decision in Surprise has instead turned into Bubic’s job to lose — not because of any dramatic breakout, but simply because he’s been healthy, effective, and steady.

With Opening Day nearing, Kansas City’s rotation is nearly set — and it looks like a legitimate strength heading into 2025.