History suggests Royals won't trade Lane Thomas to AL Central rival at deadline despite rumors

It is wild to think how much has changed for the Kansas City Royals in only a few months. Three months ago, Royals fans could at least squint and see the team get back above .500 and right the ship following a dreadful April, with most of the AL right there alongside them. But now, August is nearly here and the Royals ship is far from righted. Instead, the focus has shifted to what is on the horizon: the end of this season and the beginning of the next.

That reality has Kansas City as one of the league's clear sellers for a while now. Just how aggressive the Royals will be in selling is still up for discussion, but there is no reason not to move their most successful players on expiring contracts. Guys like pitcher John Schreiber and outfielder Starling Marte may garner meager returns at the trade deadline, but the most highly regarded rental has to be outfielder Lane Thomas. Just because the veteran can help several teams fill their right-handed bat needs, however, there is no reason to think the Royals will defy history and make a reunion happen.

The Cleveland Guardians traded for Thomas back at the 2024 trade deadline, but he struggled across his 92 games there. Cleveland is perennially in the playoff picture and could use a player like the Royals' version of Thomas. The Athletic's Zack Meisel was one of the first writers I saw propose the Royals and Guardians make a trade happen, with the past anchoring the future outlook.

"I suppose it’s not too bold if it’s the exact same addition they made two years ago at the trade deadline. The Guardians haven’t shown a knack for being bold in recent years, though, despite regularly contending. This time around, they’re hanging around in the race mostly because the AL is so weak, so a marginal upgrade at a spot of need — it seems like a reliable right-handed-hitting outfielder has been a need at the trade deadline for the last quarter-century — makes sense. Thomas chose the Royals over the Guardians last winter, but now the Royals and Guardians will make the choice for him."

Zack Meisel, The Athletic

And then, ESPN's Buster Olney pitched Thomas as a possible Guardians upgrade as well.

"For a while, it looked like the Guardians' primary focus would be for a right-handed hitter, but with the offense floundering, they'll consider a full range of upgrades. Someone like Lane Thomas of the Kansas City Royals might be a fit."

Buster Olney, ESPN

But the idea that both of them, and likely several others out there, have proposed flies in the face of decades of history between Kansas City and Cleveland. Or perhaps the lack thereof.

Royals possibly trading Lane Thomas to Guardians spits in the face of history

The two franchises have shared the AL Central since its inception back in 1994, with the Guardians winning 13 division titles to the Royals' one in that span. But the two teams have a shared history going back to 1972, when Kansas City traded pitcher Tom Hilgendorf to Cleveland for Jim Clark. That is one of just 13 trades between the two franchises, and sending Thomas to Cleveland would reset the clock in a big way.

The Royals and Guardians have not traded with each other since June 4, 2004, when the Royals acquired pitcher Matt White "as part of a conditional deal" from the Guardians. How much has changed since then? Ken Jennings had just started his 74-game winning streak on Jeopardy!, George W. Bush was still in his first term as president, and Royals catcher Carter Jensen had just celebrated his first birthday. That is what was going on then, and nothing makes me believe the two teams will defy history and make an intradivision deal at the 2026 trade deadline.

Thomas is one of the trade deadline's most moveable players, considering he is a rental who shines bright in a void of right-handed bats available. Kansas City will likely have several suitors for his services, and the Guardians could be one, sure. But even if Thomas only helps the Guardians for a short while, Cleveland would likely not send any pieces back to Kansas City that they believe could hurt them in the coming years. Unless Cleveland represents the best deal available by a wide margin, do not expect the Thomas-to-Cleveland pipeline to come to fruition.

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