Former Cy Young winner's return to division rival could spell trouble for KC Royals

Free agent Shane Bieber's brief absence from the Cleveland Guardians — the only big league team for whom he's ever pitched — has apparently ended. One of the best right-handers in the game and a thorn in the collective side of the Kansas City Royals since he broke into the majors in 2018, Bieber is reportedly returning to Cleveland on a one-year, $10 million deal with a $16 million player option for 2026 or a $4 million buyout.

So what does Bieber's decision to go back to the Guardians mean for the Royals? His re-signing obviously isn't great news for Kansas City, especially if he stages a successful comeback from the Tommy John Surgery he underwent in early April.

KC Royals must cross Shane Bieber off any list he may have been on

Whether Royals general manager J.J. Picollo had Bieber on his offseason wishlist will probably never be known, but he should have. The two-time American League All-Star and former Cy Young Award winner's TJS recovery notwithstanding, he could have been a good acquisition for the Royals had Michael Wacha not re-signed with the club in early November, as well as if Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro aren't completely sold on whoever ends up replacing traded starter Brady Singer.

Now, and assuming Kansas City was thinking about Bieber, Picollo and his front office lieutenants must turn their attention elsewhere, at least for the 2025 season. Bieber's name could come up again — he can forego the final guaranteed year of his new deal and try free agency again after next season — but for now, the Royals need to cross him off the list.

Shane Bieber's dominance over the KC Royals may continue

In a seven-year MLB career covering only five full seasons — the 2020 pandemic-shortened campaign limited him to 12 starts and he pitched only twice in 2024 — Bieber has accumulated an excellent 62-32, 3.71, 21.5 fWAR record. That includes going 6-1 with a 3.01 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 86.2 innings against Kansas City.

The Guardians can almost certainly count on that kind of success continuing against the Royals — one of their biggest division rivals — once Bieber gets back on the mound sometime in 2025. Tommy John Surgery is highly successful, so after recovering, Bieber isn't likely to suffer against a team he's always dominated.

Shane Bieber might make the KC Royals' division title chase tougher

Because his recovery from surgery will almost certainly keep him out of big-league action until at least June or July, Bieber won't be able to lead the majors in strikeouts (122) and FIP (2.07) like he did 2020 when he went 8-1 with a 1.63 ERA across12 starts. Still, he could make a difference in the AL Central race, as well as Kansas City's division title aspirations.

That's precisely what he did the last three times the Guardians won the Central. Bieber was 11-5 as a rookie when Cleveland won the 2018 division title by 13 games, and 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA when the team took it by 11 games in 2022. This year, the Guardians finished just 6.5 games in front of the Royals and Minnesota Twins, and the fact that Bieber worked only two games and went 2-0 in 12 scoreless, 20-strikeout, one-walk innings suggests that margin would have been wider had he not missed most of the season.

Look for Bieber to return to form in 2025, and as a result, things will almost certainly be a little harder for the Royals.