Can Royals' Bobby Witt Jr. overtake Yankees' Aaron Judge in AL MVP race?

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is unquestionably the franchise’s best player of the past thirty years, and the Texas native already has a strong case for one of the best single-season performances in team history.

Hall of Famer George Brett’s MVP campaign and Carlos Beltrán’s brilliance during darker days of Royals baseball still shine, but Witt’s trajectory is in a class of its own. With a month still left in the season, Witt has already posted another top-15 fWAR year in franchise history. There’s no denying Kansas City has its star in Kauffman Stadium.

Last season’s MVP race was a frustrating one for Royals fans, watching Witt showcase the game’s best five-tool skill set yet fall short of the AL MVP award. Call it East Coast bias—or simple Yankees favoritism—but Aaron Judge’s historic power surge and record-breaking numbers carried the day. He wasn’t the base-stealing threat or elite defender that Witt was, but his bat was simply that dominant.

Can Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. push back into AL MVP race?

But this is 2025. Nearly a full year later, Witt and Judge are once again among the frontrunners in the AL MVP race—though Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh’s record-breaking season has pushed him into the spotlight.

With fewer than 30 games left, MLB.com released its updated MVP rankings: Raleigh has overtaken Judge for the top spot, while Witt sits close behind in third.

Royals fans would have loved to see an MVP campaign from Witt in 2025, but that seems just out of reach. The more realistic question is whether he can leapfrog Judge, as the two have trended in opposite directions since the All-Star break. And with Witt’s talent, it certainly feels possible.

Witt has stepped up at the plate since the All-Star break, entering Wednesday’s series finale against the White Sox with a 15-game hitting streak—the longest active run in MLB. His 136 wRC+ in the second half isn’t far from his season average, but it’s a clear move in the right direction.

Judge, meanwhile, has plummeted from a 271 wRC+ in the first half to a 112 wRC+ with a .202 batting average over 27 games since the break. For most players, that kind of drop-off would warrant a demotion. For Judge, it’s simply been a brutal August.

The eye test will always lean one way or another, which is why sportswriter Henry Chadwick began creating the predecessors of modern statistics back in the 19th century. And the numbers for Witt and Judge in 2025 tell a story similar to 2024.

Witt still profiles as the more well-rounded player, while Judge’s elite bat continues to elevate his overall value. Witt is no slouch at the plate either, carrying a .307/.376/.493 line since the Midsummer Classic. A .300 batting average might not feel like the gold standard anymore, but with only seven qualified hitters in MLB reaching that mark this season, it deserves more appreciation.

Witt will always hold the edge on the basepaths over Judge. Through 131 games, he’s swiped 34 bags—third-most in baseball and second in the AL only to division rival José Ramírez. Baseball Savant’s Baserunning Runs metric, which measures value created or lost through steals and extra bases, has Witt tied for fourth-best in the league at +6 BR. Judge, meanwhile, sits near the bottom at -3 BR, tied for sixth-worst in MLB alongside Royals catcher Salvador Perez. It’s a massive gap, though one that surprises few fans given the contrast in their styles of play.

To Judge’s credit, his move from center back to right field has significantly boosted his defensive metrics. But comparing a right fielder in the bandbox of Yankee Stadium to a shortstop holding down the toughest position on the diamond is apples to oranges—or better yet, The Little Apple to The Big Apple. Success matters, but it carries a different weight depending on where you achieve it.

All this could lead to little consequence, given how Raleigh feels firmly in the driver's seat for the AL MVP race. But if Witt can get a semblance of revenge on Judge in this year's AL MVP voting, that would be sort of the moral victory that doesn't replace the trophy in the case.