3 reasons why the Royals should move on from Luinder Avila, the starter

When Kansas City Royals fans kept tabs on last year's Arizona Fall League action, it was largely to watch hometown prospect Carter Jensen and 2024 first-round pick Jac Caglianone light up the dessert landscape at the plate.

But, right-handed pitcher Luinder Avila had a standout AFL showing himself, and raised his prospect stock while cementing his spot on the Royals' 40-man roster later that winter. It was a long climb for the Venezuelan pitcher, but one that paid off with his MLB debut in 2025.

Now, Avila's body of work in the majors is fairly small, but that should stop Kansas City from adjusting how Avila fits into their near-term, and hopefully long-term, plans. Here are three reasons why Avila showed us the Royals should move on from Avila the starter and embrace Avila the reliever.

3 reasons why Kansas City should embrace Luinder Avila, the reliever

Avila's starter future is clouded by his fellow Royals

One of the offseason's biggest talking points is going to be how Kansas City's sifts through the starting pitching picture ahead of 2026. Sure, the team will want some players stretched out and ready to go in Triple-A, but there will likely be some Royals pitchers pushed to the bullpen or down the pecking order that would be starters with other teams.

While Kansas City can use minor-league options and trades to help shape the rotation's depth chart, if they are keen on moving some players to the bullpen, that would serve Avila best.

Avila doesn't have detrimental control and all stuff, but his fastball/curveball combination is potent and Royals fans saw that in his 14 innings of work this year. He earned a 104 Stuff+ and 100 Location+ grade from FanGraphs on the season, both of which are above-average for Kansas City's bullpen. Only three other Royals relievers have both a Stuff+ and Location+ score in triple digits, so the model loved Avila's arsenal to close out 2025.

It is worth noting that comes as Avila's average velocity for three of his most-used pitches all increased after coming to Kansas City, namely moving to a single-inning reliever. Many pitchers would see such an uptick, but when Avila is averaging 96 MPH on two different fastballs while the curveball has even more bite to it? That makes Avila look like an even better pitcher even if it is in such a reduced role.

Avila came into the Royals bullpen and did not look overwhelmed

Kansas City called up Avila later this season and while they didn't toss him directly into the fire, Avila's success with the opportunities he was given is commendable.

His minuscule 1.29 ERA was the second-lowest from any rookie reliever (min. 10 IP), and his 2.14 FIP and 3.35 SIERA say he wasn't in way over his head and bailed out by good fielding too much. The strikeout numbers also translated well from the minors to Kansas City, as Avila fanned 28.6% of batters while walking another 10.7%.

Was he a star from the get? No, there were hiccups. But most of the ways we evaluate pitchers fro this end, Avila did pretty good in his first taste of the majors. That has to count for something, and his poise on the mound was an intangible that made me feel comfortable with Avila on the big-league roster.

Now, the grain of salt that is necessary in this situation and when Avila's success came. He did not take the mound often with the game hanging in the balance, and the one time he did, it did not end well.

Avila faced three batters in the Sept. 26 game against the Athletics, allowing a single then a double that broke the 3-3 tie in the bottom of the ninth. Even the best pitchers have games like that, but if there was a point to reference against him moving to the bullpen or more of a higher-leverage arm, that blown moment could be it.

Thankfully, Kansas City wouldn't need Avila to be that shutdown guy to anchor the bullpen in 2026. Kansas City has a handful of veteran right-handed relievers already who can do that, but Avila could be a setup man, who hopefully works his way into a high-leverage spot once again. Here's hoping it goes better than last time.

Avila hasn't had a stellar starting track record as of late

Avila feels like he really came into focus as a prospect during his 2024 season, when he was excellent for the Double-A Northwest Arkansas Naturals. He produced well when healthy for the Naturals, and even made his Triple-A debut that season.

But, the results were not in line with a surefire future starter then, and his standout stuff even at that point said he may have more value as a reliever rather than a starter.

Kansas City had plenty of injuries affect their rotation this season, but despite being on the 40-man roster all year, the Royals never turned to Avila for help. Could that have something to do with his numbers in Triple-A?

Avila only made 14 appearances in his first season starting at Triple-A, to include nine starts. 53.1 innings of work is hardly enough to draw conclusions from, but there were some worrisome takeaways from that body of work.

First, Avila gave up plenty of home runs in a change that wasn't normal for Avila. Even though his strikeout numbers went up and his walks went down, his 15.9% HR/FB mark was the worst of his career and fueled his 5.23 ERA, the worst in his affiliated ball career.

Avila also hasn't had a full-season ERA under 4.00 at any point of his professional career, pointing to him still progressing through the system but never consistently being a shutdown starter.

His prospect profile has usually been one relying on his stuff over production, and wondering how he would look with better command or a refined changeup. But, in Kansas City's matchup-based bullpen, Avila could better avoid left-handed batters by being a single-inning guy and not need the changeup. Let him ride with his sinker/four-seam combo, while using the curveball to the delight of Royals fans.