2024 All-Star listed as 'free agent who could make sense' for KC Royals this winter

The MLB offseason has been slow-moving so far, but the Kansas City Royals have been appropriately active. From re-signing Michael Wacha to trading Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer, the Royals have been working hard to retool their roster for 2025 — and they're likely not done yet.

On November 25, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand named outfielder Jurickson Profar as a "free agent who could make sense" for the Royals to sign this offseason.

"Kansas City made some impactful signings last winter (Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, in particular) that helped the Royals return to the postseason for the first time since their 2015 World Series title run," Feinsand wrote. "But the outfield lacked production, ranking 14th in the AL in home runs and 13th in OPS as a unit. Profar is coming off a career year after helping pace a 93-win Padres team."

Kansas City's outfield was an offensive problem area in 2024, with the team utilizing five players — MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Hunter Renfroe, Tommy Pham, and Garrett Hampson — who each posted an OPS under .700. Pham and Hampson both became free agents at the end of the season, but Melendez, Isbel, and Renfroe will all be back in 2025, and the Royals urgently need to bolster the group if they want to secure another playoff berth.

Still, is Jurickson Profar really the best fit available?

Targeting Jurickson Profar would be a risky move for the KC Royals

Profar had the best offensive season of his career with the San Diego Padres in 2024, landing his first All-Star selection and Silver Slugger Award. In 564 at-bats, the 31-year-old slashed .280/.380/.459 with a career-best 24 home runs and 85 RBI, and his 134 OPS+ placed him 34% above league-average.

Going off his offensive stats in 2024, Profar is an obvious target for the Royals — but those numbers may not tell the whole story.

He batted an impressive .280 this season, but Profar's career-average is just .245, with multiple seasons below .230. Perhaps it just took 11 years for the outfielder to have his breakout season, but it's far more likely that Profar is a regression risk who won't be able to replicate the numbers he posted in 2024.

It also needs to be considered that Profar's 2024 stats were only impressive at the plate — his fielding left plenty to be desired. He ranked an abysmal 242nd out of 274 qualified fielders in Outs Above Average (OAA) at -7, with a success rate of 85% in 285 attempts in left field. Similarly, his arm value was in just the 37th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

On top of all that, recency bias around Profar's batting stats is likely inflating his value in free agency, meaning that if the Royals did sign him, they would probably end up overpaying.

Sportrac projects Profar will land a 2-year, $25.8 million deal this winter, which is a huge pay increase from the $1 million contract with $1.5 million in incentives that he had with the Padres in 2024. A deal that high is likely to be well outside of what the Royals would be prepared to pay for an outfielder at this stage, so unless Profar's prepared to sign a far more team-friendly deal, his cost likely eliminates him from being a serious target.

Plus, even if the Royals did decide to splurge and spend big on an outfielder, there are almost certainly better options available than Profar.