Ranking free agent outfielders for KC Royals to target heading into 2025

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In 2024, the Kansas City Royals turned the team's trajectory around, earning a playoff campaign just one year after a 106-loss season. It was a historic comeback — but if the Royals want to back it up by playing even deeper into the postseason next year, they need to address their outfield.

At the Royals' end-of-season press conference in October, general managerJ.J. Picollo said that increasing production from the outfield was a priority going into 2025.

“The offense from the outfield positions has to get better,” Picollo told reporters. “Generally speaking, when you’re looking at left field, right field, that’s where you’re thinking about power guys. And we know this ballpark doesn’t lend itself to homers, but it does lend itself to slug. So we’ve got to be more productive there.”

This winter, outfielder Juan Soto is unquestionably the top free agent available on the market. Unfortunately, the superstar slugger is projected to land a 14-year, $513 million contract, according to Sportrac, which puts him well out of the price range for most teams, including the Royals.

With that in mind, let's look at the top free agent outfielders for the Royals to target this winter, ranking them from third to first.

3. Jurickson Profar

After 11 years in MLB, Jurickson Profar is coming off the best offensive season of his career. The 31-year-old slashed .280/.380/.459 with the San Diego Padres in 2024, racking up a career-best 24 home runs and 85 RBI, and earning his first All-Star selection. He appeared in seven games during the Padres' playoff campaign but didn't impress quite as much, batting .200 with 1 RBI in 25 at-bats.

Profar's 134 OPS+ put him 34% above league-average at the plate, but unfortunately, his defensive performance was substantially less stellar. He ranked 242nd out of 274 qualified fielders in Outs Above Average (OAA) at -7, with a success rate of 85% in 285 attempts in left field. Similarly, his arm value was in just the 37th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

Having substantially built up his value at the plate in 2024, Profar will be looking at a significant pay-rise this winter. Sportrac projects the outfielder will land a 2-year, $25.8 million contract out of free agency, which is a big jump up from the $1 million deal with $1.5 million in incentives that he had with the Padres this year. Still, that sort of contract wouldn't be out to the Royals' budget.

Despite his impressive performance at the plate this season, signing Profar would be a risky move. He batted .280 in 2024, but his career-average is just .245, with multiple seasons below .230. Maybe he's just a slow bloomer and it just took 11 seasons in the majors for Profar to finally have his breakout year — or maybe he's a regression risk who won't be able to replicate the numbers he put up this season.

2. Tyler O’Neill

The 2024 season was a rebound year for Tyler O'Neill. The 29-year-old slashed .241/.336/.511 with 31 home runs and 66 RBI in 411 at-bats, and according to Baseball Savant, he was in the 98th percentile in barrel rate at an incredible 17.3%. O'Neill's defensive stats left a bit to be desired at -4 OAA, but the two-time Gold Glove winner has plenty of potential to get back to his glory days in the field — if he's healthy.

The biggest concern with O'Neill is his unfortunate injury history. With the St. Louis Cardinals, he managed just 96 games in 2022 due to a sore shoulder and a hamstring injury, and played only 72 games in 2023 because of a lower back strain. He seemed to turn a corner in 2024 with the Boston Red Sox, but still dealt with small issues that limited him to 113 games.

Still, O'Neill is one of the top outfielders available in free agency, and Sportrac projects he will secure a three-year, $48.7 million deal this offseason, which would put his AAV at $16.2 million. While the Royals may not want to offer a multi-year deal, one or even two seasons at $16 million each would likely be within their price range.

The Royals were interested in trading for O'Neill last offseason, but a deal was never struck, and the Cardinals ended up trading him to the Red Sox. Now a free agent, O'Neill would still be a fit for Kansas City's roster, possibly even more so than he was last year. He could slot into middle of the batting lineup and bolster the offensive power from the outfield, which the Royals desperately need.

Plus, if O'Neill can get his fielding back to the level of his Gold Glove Award-winning days, Kansas City will have landed a bargain.

1. Teoscar Hernández

On October 31, The Athletic's Jim Bowden named the Royals as a "best team fit" for Teoscar Hernández, and aside from Soto, there's no question that he's the best outfielder available on the market right now. Coming off a World Series win with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the 32-year-old is looking to keep that momentum going, and he'd be a great addition to Kansas City's roster as they chase down another playoff campaign in 2025.

In 154 regular-season games (589 at-bats) with the Dodgers this season, Hernández posted a .272/.339/.501 line with a career-best 33 home runs, 99 RBI, and 12 stolen bases. He earned the second All-Star selection of his career this season, and won the MLB Home Run Derby, becoming the first player in Dodgers history to ever win the contest. Hernández appeared in 16 games during Los Angeles' successful postseason campaign, batting .250 with 3 home runs and 12 RBI in 60 at-bats.

Unfortunately, Hernández's performance on defense has always left a bit to be desired, and this season, it was a disaster. In 2024, his OAA score in left field was a career-worst -9, which ranked him 260th out of 274 qualified fielders. Similarly, his -11 Fielding Run Value (FRV) was the worst he's posted in his nine-season career in the majors.

Despite his defensive shortcomings, Sportrac projects that Hernández will secure a 3-year, $71.2 million contract this winter, which isn't far off Bowden's 3-year, $75 million prediction for the right fielder. These projections put Hernández's AAV at $23.8-25 million, just above the $23.5 million he made on his one-year deal with the Dodgers in 2024, and making him by far the most expensive option in these rankings.

Admittedly, a three-year contract in the range of $75 million may be outside of what the Royals are prepared to spend to bolster their outfield right now, especially after recently signing starter Michael Wacha to a three-year, $51 million contract with an option year and incentives that could increase the value to $72 million. Kansas City may also be resistant to signing a multi-year deal with Hernández, who just turned 32 and is a long way from the strongest defender.

Still, signing Hernández on a one-year contract like he had with the Dodgers isn't out of the question — but the Royals would have to strike early. There are likely to be a number of teams interested in acquiring Hernández for his strong bat, and many will be open to offering a longer, more lucrative deal that Kansas City is able to.

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3. Jurickson Profar

2. Tyler O’Neill

1. Teoscar Hernández

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