Projecting the KC Royals’ Opening Day starting lineup

We’ll be without KC Royals baseball for quite a while, but that can’t stop us from predicting what the first lineup of the regular season will look like.

We’ve got a long way to go until baseball is back. Eight more weeks, at the minimum. It’s going to be difficult but together, we can get through it. KC Royals games will be back before you know it.

With spring training being canceled, the likelihood of outside options working their way into the Opening Day fold decreases by quite a bit. Spring contests can only be evaluated about halfway through. That bodes well for those who’ve been staples in the lineup for a while.

This year’s lineup, both positionally and personnel-wise, will look a bit different than the one you saw a year ago. That’s normal for a rebuilding club. General manager Dayton Moore didn’t break the bank this offseason under new owner John Sherman, instead opting for bargain-bin signings.

So with that said, let’s jump in and project what the Royals’ starting lineup will look like the next time they take the field, starting with the designated hitter position:

Designated hitter: Jorge Soler

Jorge Soler had a breakout 2019 season, and the crazy part is he still might have a bit of room to improve. In a full season’s worth of games last year, the Cuban-born designated hitter clubbed a franchise record and league-leading 48 home runs. The power Royals fans had long hoped for finally showed up in a big way.

On top of that, Soler was also able to get on base at a decent rate. His .265/.354/.569 line was undeniably weighted a bit by his crazy SLG but nonetheless, his second-half provided immense hope for 2020.

In the second act of the 2019 regular season, Soler took his game to another level. Hitting .299 and posting an OBP of .411, he was quite literally one of the best hitters in all of baseball. His strikeout rate, albeit extremely high, even dipped to just under one per game over that 71-contest stretch.

Soler bet on himself by taking a one-year deal to return to KC this season. We’ll see if it pays off for him, but it almost surely will for the team.

First base: Ryan O’Hearn

One of the most surprising storylines of the 2018 season was first baseman Ryan O’Hearn emerging as a legitimate power threat in the lineup. The left-handed hitter managed to swat 12 balls out of the ballpark despite playing just 44 games at the MLB level. Expectations were high heading into the subsequent offseason.

To say O’Hearn came back down to earth last season would be an understatement. He crashed hard. In 105 games, he posted a .195/.281/.369 line with 14 home runs and 38 RBIs. Instead of taking the leap forward many expected in carrying his success into 2019, he regressed.

Matheny likes O’Hearn and will give him ample opportunity to win the starting job. He had a great spring training for the KC Royals, but so did his competition. Ryan McBroom came over from the New York Yankees last season and was respectable in 23 games. His power has shown up this spring and he could make things interesting.

For now, though, it’s O’Hearn’s job to lose. He’s got better raw power, the manager likes him and he’s got seniority over McBroom. A platoon swap between the two very well could be in play as the season unfolds, though.

Second base: Nicky Lopez

Nicky Lopez is one of the more interesting players in this lineup. Before he was promoted last May, he’d built a reputation as a high-contact, high-walk, low-strikeout player that also provided good speed and defense. His final numbers from 2019 don’t paint a great picture, though.

In 103 games with the KC Royals last season, Lopez posted a .240/.276/.325 line with a pair of home runs. His defense was solid and considering he also logged innings at shortstop when Adalberto Mondesi was injured, that’s a bright spot heading into this season. So is his performance down the stretch.

While battling a hand injury, Lopez posted a .288/.333/.444 line in the month of September. He also gained 18 pounds of muscle over the offseason and had a terrific 10-game sample size in spring training.

Of all the Royals on the team right now, Lopez has to be at the top of the list when referring to those poised for a breakout. He’s never going to be a big home run hitter and his style of play isn’t electrifying at the plate, but he can make nearly any play at second base and should see his OBP rise quite a bit. He’s the real deal, and the 2020 season should be a lot nicer to him than 2019 was.

Shortstop: Adalberto Mondesi

Perhaps the greatest beneficiary of the 2020 regular season having a delayed start is Adalberto Mondesi. The young, sensational shortstop has been rehabbing from shoulder surgery and was iffy for Opening Day so now that baseball is pushed into May, he should be more than ready to go for the KC Royals.

Mondesi played a career-high 102 games last season despite missing significant time with a nagging shoulder injury. In those games, he put together a solid season, albeit a step back from the year before. His .263/.291/.424 line with 10 triples, nine home runs, and 62 RBIs was solid, but not quite what the Royals had hoped for.

The potential is there for Mondesi to become one of baseball’s best players. On the other hand, he has some legitimate red flags. His health and his approach at the plate will ultimately either cap his ceiling before we know it or allow him to break through into stardom.

Mondesi possesses some impressive raw power. His speed is second to almost no one and he makes some amazing plays at short. On the other hand, he strikes out a ton and has yet to put together a complete season of baseball. Nevertheless, he’s already a good player and will be the everyday man for KC in 2020 and beyond.

Third base: Maikel Franco

Maikel Franco is the newest face in the lineup, as he came over on a one-year contract in the offseason. He could possibly be a candidate for a midseason trade if he plays well but other than that, it appears he’ll hold down duties at third base for the KC Royals in 2020.

Franco had arguably his best season as a pro in 2018, posting a .270/.314/.467 line while launching 22 balls out of the park. He ended the 2019 season with 17 home runs and his batting average dropped to .234. Instead of hitting the free agent market with some momentum, he had to take a “prove-it” deal.

Franco could have a solid 2020. He’s not facing a ton of pressure and seems content with his current situation with the Royals. The team moved Hunter Dozier to right field so Franco could receive near-daily playing time. Opportunity will be on his side.

On top of that, he’s got some good raw power. Could we see a Soler-like breakout from Franco? Probably not. But could he turn in a good season and generate both some trade value and maybe a bit of free agent buzz? Absolutely.

Franco’s defense is a sore spot, but it’s not like Dozier was a worldbeater at the hot corner, either. He seems to have a solid grasp on what he is at this point in his career and as he turns 28 midseason, he should be right in the middle of his prime as a player.

Left field: Alex Gordon

One of the most decorated and beloved KC Royals of all-time is back for yet another season. Despite some expecting Alex Gordon to hang ’em up after a bounceback 2019 season, he’s decided he still has baseball left to play.

In his age-35 season, Gordon hit for a 96 OPS+ (100 is considered average) and won his seventh Gold Glove award (third in a row). Although his defense may be getting by a bit on reputation these days, he’s still a firm plus on that end and his resurgence of sorts at the plate was great to see.

Some may disagree with the move, alluding to the fact that the organization has a multitude of outfielders already waiting for their chances to show what they can do. While that’s a fair point, Gordon will likely play less often in 2020 than he has in any non-injury ridden season. The days of him playing close to a full 162-game slate are probably over.

Who knows what version of Alex Gordon we’ll get this season. At the very least, even if he flops coming out of the gate, his excellent defense and leadership will remain. Perhaps he can usher in his heir to the throne in left field. Until then, we’ll hopefully have a couple of highlight plays to add to his ever-growing reel.

Center field: Whit Merrifield

No member of the KC Royals has had a better last few seasons than super-utility man Whit Merrifield. Ever since being called up part of the way through the 2016 season, Whit has brought his lunch pail to work day in and day out to perform for the team. He’s done a terrific job in the process.

Not only has Merrifield led the league in hits in back-to-back seasons, but he’s also a two-time stolen bases champ. He doesn’t have many weak points in his game. He gets on base at a good rate, has a bit of power in his bat, plays solid defense and is a great clubhouse influence.

Speaking of defense, this will be the first season in which Merrifield’s primary position is center field. This is a change for him, but he’s spent his fair share of time there in the past. He probably won’t be a Gold Glove winner in his new spot, but he should be serviceable at worst.

Whit Merrifield is the epitome of what you see is what you get. If you see a reliable player and a jack-of-all-trades that can be one of the best players on your team, you’ll get that. Expect another good year from the KC Royals’ 31-year-old.

Right field: Hunter Dozier

One of the lone bright spots in an otherwise dark 2019 season was the emergence of Hunter Dozier as a premier talent at the plate. He played 102 games the year before and had not shown much promise. The KC Royals gave him an extended look last year and it absolutely paid off.

Despite Dozier being a poor defender at third base, he more than made up for it with his year as a hitter. His approach was mature, as evidenced by his .279/.348/.522 slash, 26 home runs and 84 RBIs. Dozier also finished tied for the league lead in triples with 10 and had a 125 OPS+. Striking out 148 times was less than ideal but when combined with 55 walks, it’s a lot easier to accept.

With the addition of Franco, Dozier now moves to right field seemingly on a full-time basis. This should lead to his defense improving in the process, something that will be a welcomed sight on the Royals’ behalf.

Dozier is 28 years old. He fits the timeline of the Royals contending in the future, but only by a slim margin. He’ll be 29 in August. That means his best baseball is here now — and might not stay for long. We should see another terrific season from him and with his athletic profile, don’t be surprised to see him excel in right field as well.

Starter: Brad Keller

Brad Keller, a former Rule 5 draft pick, is entering his third season as a member of the KC Royals. After going 9-6 with a 3.08 record in 2018, he didn’t experience the same level of success last season.

Keller won a third of his 21 starts and carried a 4.19 ERA to go with the 7-14 record. He was still a respectable pitcher overall but for staff that needed someone to lead the way, he didn’t quite live up to expectations. Instead, he was merely an okay starter.

Plenty of eyes are on Keller to return to his old form in 2020. He’s tweaked his arsenal a little bit and has the stuff to succeed. Still just 24 years old, there’s time left for him to headline this rotation

The emergence of another outside name (or two, or three) could take some pressure off Keller down the road but for now, he’s the staff ace. The Royals will go as he does and with some improved luck and run support, the peripherals should look a lot better.

He’s the best we’ve got, which means Keller will probably be your Opening Day starter for the KC Royals.