KC Royals bullpen competition update: It’s still close

A crowd of relief pitchers is vying for a handful of spots in the bullpen of the KC Royals. After the first week of spring training games, the competition is still stiff.

For all its good, spring training is also a time of illusions, a thrower of the proverbial breaking pitch in the dirt that fools us into exaggerating the importance of a perennial weak hitter’s high spring average, a marginal pitcher’s sudden dominance, or a superstar’s uncharacteristically horrid performance.

If there is a lesson to be learned from baseball’s annual rite of renewal and preparation, including that of the KC Royals, it is this: Don’t bet the farm that spring training performance accurately foretells regular season outcomes.

To be sure, the sample sizes are too small and the variables too variable–minor league pitchers face major league hitters, major league pitchers face minor league hitters, all hitters typically take time to catch up to the pitchers. But the closer the regular season gets, the more usable performance data can become; it’s never foolproof, but it gets better with age.

So it is that lifting something meaningful out of just a week’s worth of exhibition game data is hard, a task made more difficult by those small sample sizes and invariably excessive variables, but doing so is the object of this early effort to make at least some sense of the crowded contest for the few spots available in the Royals’ bullpen.

To provide some order to the mess, it’s safe to assume that at least three relievers are locks for jobs–Ian Kennedy is the closer, Scott Barlow the presumptive main setup man by virtue of his sterling performance over the second half of last season, and Tim Hill is the best of the scarce left-handers in the competition, but one deserving of a spot in his own right.

Jorge Lopez is as close to a lock without absolutely being one that he can be–he has occasionally mesmerizing stuff, but inconsistency has prevented him from establishing himself as a starter or reliever. Barring unforeseen mediocrity, he’ll make the club–he’s out of options–and it will likely be as a reliever. With the three locks, Lopez, the 26-man roster and 13-pitcher maximum rules taking effect this season, and a five-man rotation, that leaves four bullpen spots for manager Mike Matheny to award.

Counting Thursday’s game, the KC Royals have seven days of exhibition games under their belts, including two days of split-squad games. Matheny hasn’t seen enough to determine to whom his remaining bullpen spots will go, but we can certainly examine the first week of spring contests and identify who’s doing well, who’s performing badly, and who’s on the bubble.

A long-struggling KC Royals pitcher who has primarily been a starter is a candidate for the club’s bullpen. If one game is any indication, his struggles may continue.

To say Eric Skoglund has struggled in the three partial seasons he’s been with the KC Royals would be an understatement in every sense of the word. He has two wins–one in his first major league game in 2017 when he retired 14 Tigers in a row and out-dueled Justin Verlander for 6.1 scoreless innings, the other a two-hit, one run, nine-strikeout seven-inning performance against the White Sox in 2018.  He went 1-2 with a 9.50 ERA that first season, then 1-6 with a 5.14 the next (to be fair, he was injured part of the year). His major league record is now 2-11 with a 6.61 ERA.

Skoglund struggled in 2019, too, a season cut almost in half by his 80-game PED-related suspension. In the six games he pitched, he was 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA and his WHIP was a too-high 1.857. His minor league numbers weren’t encouraging, either–he was a combined 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA between stints at AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha.

The Royals have always considered Skoglund a starter–22 of his 27 big league appearances have been starts and only one of his 88 minor league games was in relief. But in six professional seasons, he’s had only one winning campaign, a 6-3 2015 in High A.

Realistically, then, Skoglund is not a viable candidate for the Royals’ rotation; instead, he’ll have to secure a seat in the bullpen. He is not, however, off to a good start: in his one Cactus League appearance, he retired the first two hitters he faced on grounders, then gave up three straight hits (including a three-run home run) and exited after two-thirds of an inning. His too-early ERA is 40.50. He’ll have to reverse course rapidly to have a chance; as discussed previously in this space, his time with the KC Royals may be short.

While Skoglund’s performance is the most concerning of the KC Royals’ bullpen hopefuls, their only appearances haven’t helped two long shots. Gabe Speier surrendered two runs and two hits in a third of an inning; he’s a left-hander on a team short on lefty relievers, but that trait alone won’t save him if he doesn’t improve. And Conner Greene, a seven-year professional plagued throughout his career with control problems, gave up a run, a hit and walked three in his one-third inning. He, too, faces disappointment if things don’t get better.

Four KC Royals hoping to win jobs in the bullpen have had different performances so far, but none should be considered to have won–or lost–relief roles.

Jesse Hahn, a right-hander who’s appeared in five big league seasons, including one with the KC Royals, and Kyle Zimmer, another Royal with big-league experience, are competing for a spot in Mike Matheny‘s bullpen; so, too, are two complete newcomers to the club, Braden Shipley and Chance Adams. At this point, they haven’t eliminated themselves from the competition, but they haven’t distinguished themselves as locks.

Following some serviceable seasons with San Diego and Oakland, an injury slowed Hahn after he came to KC in a trade with the A’s after the 2017 season. He pitched only 10 times in the minors across 2018 and ’19, then pitched in six games for the Royals last season, going 0-1 in 4.2 innings; although he gave up seven runs on seven hits and walked six, he struck out seven.  The Royals released him after the season but re-signed him less than two weeks later.

Because he’s out of minor-league options, likely won’t find himself in the starting rotation, is pitching on a major league contract, and has big-league experience, Hahn stands a decent chance to make the club as a reliever. But he may be on the bubble, or close to it–in two games and two innings, he’s been rocked for five runs and six hits. Those numbers won’t disqualify him yet, but they can’t continue for long.

Zimmer, once a promising prospect the Royals have stuck with through the thick and thin of the unfortunate string of injuries that continually threatened his career, has two appearances, neither pretty. He pitched two-thirds of an inning against Cleveland and gave up two hits, two runs and two walks; he then pitched an inning against the White Sox Wednesday and struck out two, but surrendered two hits and a run. His ERA is 10.80, his record 0-1. However, the club and Zimmer are dedicated to each other and he can still earn a spot. (He also has an option left).

Shipley was a curious offseason acquisition for the Royals, a starter turned reliever with a brief and undistinguished big league career. In 26 games over three partial seasons with Arizona, he was 4-6 with a 5.49 ERA; the high ERA is consistent with the increasingly high ERAs he posted in the minors. Shipley will have to do better to make it to Kansas City and has impressed so far, pitching twice with no walks, three strikeouts and a save in three innings. A long shot when spring training began, Shipley has improved his chances; how much remains to be seen.

Adams was once a bright star in the Yankee organization who punctuated his rise through the minors with stingy successive season ERAs of 1.78, 2.33, 1.03 and 2.89, and stellar 2016 and ’17 season records of 13-1 and 15-5. But he hasn’t repeated such success since undergoing elbow surgery after the 2017 season; he pitched poorly in the minors and in what little time he spent with the Yankees, who traded him to the Royals last December for minor league Cristian Perez.

Adams and the Royals hope he recaptures the form that made the Yankees so justifiably high on him. So far, he’s appeared in two games and struck out two and walked none in 2.1 innings. But he’s also surrendered three hits and two runs, although one of those runs was unearned. The Royals need to see more of Adams before deciding whether he was a Chance worth taking.

The Royals haven’t made any public decisions about their spring bullpen competition. Some pitchers are locks to make the team, others are trending downward, and still, others are on the bubble. The field will narrow before long, but for now, the competition remains wide open.