Predicting contract terms for Kansas City Royals free agents

The 2017 Kansas City Royals have some of the top free agents on the market. Here’s a look at the number of years and dollars those players could sign for this offseason.

There’s going to be a lot of money thrown at former Kansas City Royals players this winter. Teams from coast to coast will be vying for the respective signatures of Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain, among others. It’s possible the Royals re-sign one or two players, but those possibilities are more than likely limited to Hosmer, Alcides Escobar and Peter Moylan.

The team’s other six free agents are almost guaranteed to be elsewhere in 2018. And that’s fine, because the Kansas City Royals — thanks to some previous poor financial decisions — don’t have the capacity to bring the whole group back. Fans would love to see it, no doubt. But David Glass would just as soon rebuild than ink two $70-plus million contract this offseason.

Doing so — say for Moustakas and Hosmer — would give the team four players on contracts totaling $70-plus million. Although, two of those deals, for Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy, would be partly finished. Regardless, it’s looking each and every day like the market itself will decide what the future holds in Kansas City.

A couple of years ago, the market for Gordon never materialized — and for good reason. It led to a player many fans thought never would come back re-signing on a four-year deal. Pundits have consistently boasted about the amount of money the Royals’ top three free agents will get this offseason. But those same people are starting to question how much of a bidding war there will be for Hosmer, Cain and Moustakas.

It makes the following exercise a lot more fun but also more challenging: What will the contract terms be for the free agents who suited up for Kansas City in 2017?

The Minnows

These are the players who would be considered small fish in the big free agency pool. Some of them will still get decent contracts in a thin year at their positions. However, others will find their leverage low with little need at their positions. Either way, these guys aren’t likely to earn anything more than one-year contracts this offseason.

Alcides Escobar

A decent second half to the season will see his dollar amount likely increase. But there’s almost no situation where Escobar signs for more than one year. The Kansas City Royals could look to bring him back depending on how things go elsewhere. The other team that would make the most sense would be the Padres.

Verdict: one-year, $6 million contract

Trevor Cahill

There were few bigger deadline busts in MLB than Trevor Cahill. (Although, Brandon Maurer would be in the discussion.) That being said, someone will find use for him next year. He could be a steal, as Matt Kelly of MLB.com included Cahill in a list of possible bounce-back candidates in the mold of Charlie Morton this past season.

Verdict: one-year, $3 million contract

Melky Cabrera

Versatility and leadership will see Melky Cabrera assuredly employed in 2018. He performed well enough last season, although his numbers after the trade were disappointing. His defense isn’t good enough to see him play in the outfield every day, but an American League team could use him at designated hitter frequently.

Verdict: one-year, $7.5 million contract

Peter Moylan

In many ways, Moylan is the most likely player to return to the Kansas City Royals. The bullpen will need all the help it can get next year. Despite being a unique reliever, Moylan won’t have many suitors clamoring for his signature during the winter. He’ll probably be back on a similar (or exactly identical) contract to what he had in 2017.

Verdict: one-year, $1 million contract

Jason Vargas

The 2017 season might have done as much to hurt Jason Vargas as it did help him. He proved he could come back healthy after an elbow injury cost him almost all of the 2015 and 2016 seasons. But he also showed clear signs of fatigue.

Based solely on the first half, Vargas might have been in line for a two-year deal worth upwards of $15-20 million. However, he showed his age — he’ll be 35 when the 2018 season starts — with a horrendous second half. That could take him out of the running for a multi-year contract.

The one positive will be that Vargas’ pitching style isn’t particularly hard on his body. You could also chalk up the fatigue to not having pitched a complete season since 2014. But it should also make teams hesitant to give him more than one guaranteed year.

All that being said, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports thinks Vargas will reel in $24 million over two years. His “expert” sidekick on the article predicts the left-hander will also sign a two-year deal, but they have him earning considerably less money ($14 million).

It’s looking increasingly likely that Vargas signs his contract — whatever the terms may be — with Baltimore. The Orioles seem to have a lot of interest in him and for good reason. With just two starters, both right-handers, set to return, Buck Showalter needs arms. There are enough teams that could use Vargas to think one would be willing to give him a two-year contract.

Verdict: two-year, $16 million contract

Mike Minor

There aren’t going to be many left-handed relievers with the versatility of Mike Minor available this winter. It means two things can be said about Minor’s offseason outlook. Firstly, he will have plenty of contract offers. And second, the terms of those deals will vary greatly. Not only are teams going to differ on the role they expect Minor to fulfill but also the confidence they have in him to stay healthy.

Not only are teams going to differ on the role they expect Minor to fulfill but also the confidence they have in him staying healthy.

Personally, it’s hard to imagine Minor will remain healthy for the extent of any contract he signs. The question then becomes how much are you willing to lose should that happen. It cost the Kansas City Royals one full season paying Minor, but you could argue he made up for it in 2017. Then again, you could say they paid him starter money for two years, and he gave them outstanding reliever play for one season.

It makes me think teams will be more willing to give him extra money in lieu of another season. Minor is likely seeking a four-year contract, but he could have to settle for three years. Houston has been rumored to be interested, and they will likely be joined by other playoff-caliber teams. There are few left-handed bullpen options who can pitch high-leverage situations — be it the eighth inning, ninth inning or coming on in a jam — the way Minor did in 2017.

Verdict: three-year, $28 million contract

Lorenzo Cain

There’s a chance Cain could be a victim of previous comparable players. Guys like Denard Span and Dexter Fowler signed major contracts the past few years. Neither has been able to perform up to the numbers on the paper they signed.

Age and position are the common factors between Cain and those other players. Span signed for three years and $31 million entering his age-32 season. Fowler, meanwhile, entered his age-31 season after signing a five-year, $82 million deal with the Cardinals. For comparison, Cain will turn 32 in April. Those previous busts will make some teams turn to cheaper options. But a market still exists for a top-of-the-order bat and plus-defender.

Towards the end of the contract, Cain will be able to shift over to right field and not lose a beat. His speed will likely drop off in the coming years, but he should have a few productive seasons before hitting the proverbial wall. The potential landing spots for Cain are as numerous as any free agent on the market. From the Mets, to the Rangers, to the Giants, there are no shortage of viable destinations.

The question becomes what kind of contract is Cain in line to receive. Fowler’s deal, especially with Cain being a year older at the time of signing, could be enough to dissuade teams from giving him five years. It shouldn’t hurt his per-year earning, which should still wind up north of $16 million.

Verdict: four-year, $65 million contract

Mike Moustakas

The Kansas City Royals look unlikely to pursue Moustakas, even in the event Hosmer isn’t retained. That doesn’t mean the slugging third baseman will struggle to find a job this offseason — far from it. Moustakas appears to fit in best with teams looking for that one player to help them get into the playoffs. That would include teams like the Mets, Giants and Angels.

The consensus seems to be that he will be tied down for five years. However, there seems to be a large variation in how much that five-year deal will be worth.

Moustakas will see some teams shy away at his camp’s contract demands for various reasons. Part of which will be based on his age (29) and injury history (torn ACL in 2016). Another big sticking point is simpler: His reputation exceeds his actual production. Other than his 38 home runs, which were 16 more than his previous career-high, he didn’t put up great offensive numbers in 2017.

The fact that his .272 batting average and .314 on-base percentage were each the second-highest marks of his career is bad news. On the other side, his defense has dropped off after his knee injury. It means he could have to transition to designated hitter near the end of his contract — that is if an AL team inks him.

Those negatives notwithstanding, Moustakas will enter a long partnership this winter. The consensus seems to be that he will be tied down for five years. However, there seems to be a large variation in how much that five-year deal will be worth. In the aforementioned article on FanRag Sports, Heyman predicts Moustakas’ five-year contract will earn him $80 million, while the “expert” thinks it will garner him $92 million. Expect something in between.

Verdict: five-year, $85 million contract