KC Royals: Bubba Starling Is At A Career Crossroads

Mar 2, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Bubba Starling against the Texas Rangers during a Spring Training game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 2, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Bubba Starling against the Texas Rangers during a Spring Training game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
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Feb 25, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Bubba Starling poses for a portrait during photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 25, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals outfielder Bubba Starling poses for a portrait during photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

KC Royals former top prospect Bubba Starling took a major step back in 2016, producing his worst season in professional baseball. But, the Kansas City front office still has hopes for Starling.

Kansas City Royals outfielder Bubba Starling faces a career crossroads this spring at age 24. If he can solve his problems at the plate, he could spend a decade as a major league starter. If not, he’s looking at a career as a fringe bench player valued for his defense. Let’s take a quick look at how a much-hyped prospect got in this situation.

After getting a late start in his baseball career, Starling quickly burst onto the MLB Draft radar as a multi-sport star in high school at Gardner, Kansas. The Royals then picked Starling with the fifth overall pick in the 2011 draft. The hometown kid decided to sign with the Kansas City Royals for a record bonus, opting out of a football scholarship to Nebraska.

After the KC Royals drafted him in 2011, Starling quickly turned heads after he posted a 135 wRC+ in Rookie League. This early success caused some huge hype for Starling, as he was ranked as high as the 24th best prospect in all of baseball in 2012.

The hype quickly slowed down though. After his great rookie debut, the Royals kept pushing Starling up the ranks. However, his bat struggled to keep pace. Starling’s production rapidly declined, until he produced a mere .642 OPS at A+ Wilmington in 2014. Many people around baseball were starting to give up on Starling.

Struggling At Wilminton Is Normal In The Royals System

However, those familiar with the KC Royals organization know that Wilmington is a brutal level for developing hitters. Wilmington’s home park has a notoriously tough hitting background that makes it difficult for many batters to see the ball out of the pitcher’s hand. For example, a 20-year-old Carlos Beltran famously hit a mere .229/.311/.363 in 1997. Two years later, he won the 1999 American League Rookie Of The Year Award in Kansas City.

Oh, yeah. Beltran is now a good candidate for induction in the Hall Of Fame at Cooperstown when he retires. Thus, a bad year at Wilmington hardly dooms the career of a young position player in the Kansas City system.

Mar 5, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Bubba Starling (11) runs to first base after hitting a pitch in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Bubba Starling (11) runs to first base after hitting a pitch in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

Bubba Starling Gets Back On Track

To start off 2015, Starling repeated a level for the first time in his career, which proved to be very beneficial to him. Through his first 12 games of 2015, Starling mashed the Carolina League. He posted a triple slash of .386/.471/.614. This performance earned Starling a very quick promotion to Double A, where he continued to hit well.

Starling was now back on the prospect radar.

This turnaround happened due to minor adjustments to his swing. The biggest change was shortening his leg kick at the plate. He also made adjustments to his bat path. Both these changes really helped Starling unleash some power, as he improved his slugging percentage from .338 to .448.

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Starling Crashes Again

Now that the hype was back with Starling, many Royals fans were itching for him to reach the majors. Starling went back to AA to begin 2016, where he would soon be quickly exposed. With all of the inconsistencies in his swing, AA pitchers figured him out, attacking him more inside.

But many people in the Royals organization believed that this was a mental issue, more than a mechanical problem. After hitting 36% below league average, the Royals hoped to get Starling the jump start he needed. Disappointingly, that’s not what happened. Starling hit even worse in AAA, producing an ugly .478 OPS.

Mar 5, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Bubba Starling (11) runs to first base after hitting a pitch in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 5, 2016; Surprise, AZ, USA; Kansas City Royals center fielder Bubba Starling (11) runs to first base after hitting a pitch in the second inning against the Chicago White Sox at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

Starling’s Career Crossroads

After these up and down years in the minors, Starling finds himself at a career crossroads in 2017. After crashing down every prospect list, Starling will need to make the needed adjustments to change people’s minds again. And, even if he can’t ever figure out how to hit, Starling will probably find himself a spot on a major league roster. His speed and defense are still considered elite.

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What fans need to watch for this spring in Starling’s game is seeing if he has improved his feel for the strike zone. He struck out 36.4% (!) of the time last year in AAA.  Starling needs to simplify his swing and make more contact. If he can do this, you could still see an above-average hitter in the future. It’s just a matter of if.

The early returns so far look encouraging. Starling is slashing .300/.364/.300 this spring in Surprise. His .664 OPS is hardly impressive. But, the more important number is that he has only one whiff in 10 at bats. Starling looks like he’s making progress with his contact problem.

Like I said, there is still hope for Starling. For example, Lorenzo Cain had a season where he posted a .615 OPS in AA (in the Brewers organization). Cain is a good comparison for what Starling can become if he reaches his upside: some pop, good speed, and great defense. Both of them also got late starts to their baseball careers.

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Time is running out for Starling. Hopefully he has made the adjustments to change. Because if he can, there is still an above-average player in him.

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