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KC Royals: Are Merrifield, Eibner, And Orlando For Real?

By John Viril

Jul 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Paulo Orlando (16) and third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (19) celebrate on the way to the dugout after the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 9, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Paulo Orlando (16) and third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert (19) celebrate on the way to the dugout after the eighth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-3. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /
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May 17, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Paulo Orlando (16) is congratulated by teammates after the win over the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
May 17, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals right fielder Paulo Orlando (16) is congratulated by teammates after the win over the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals won 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports /

3) Paulo Orlando

Paulo Orlando is hitting much better as a second year player for the KC Royals, slashing an outstanding .353/.380/.460 in 159 at bats in 2016. Though defensive metrics rated Orlando a plus defender, this season he’s already -5.0 runs below average. Overall, however, his strong bat has made him appear to be a viable starting outfielder.

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However, Orlando BABIP is an outrageous .452 which is in no way sustainable. His hard hit rate is nothing special at 23.9%, which is around seven percent lower than his 31.4% hard hit rate in 2015. Given Orlando’s much better results in 2016 despite making softer contact suggests Orlando isn’t going to continue his current success.

The other main difference I see in Orlando’s Fangraphs.com data is that he’s swinging more aggressively. His swing rate is up 4% from 53.0% in 2015 to 57.5% in 2016. He’s swinging more often at both pitches in and out of the strike zone. And his on base percentage is a much better .380 over his substandard .269 in 2015.

However, that OBP improvement doesn’t look long-term given his outrageously high BABIP. His walk rate remains an exceptionally low 2.5%, which is only slightly better than his 2.0% walk rate in 2015.

Give this data, I’m pretty confident that Orlando’s recent performance is a mirage. Enjoy it while it lasts KC Royals fans, but I doubt he’ll keep it up for much longer.

Next: Jon Jay IS A Possible Trade Target For Royals

If my analysis is correct, Dayton Moore would be wise to explore outfield options on the trade market. While I believe Whit Merrifield will continue to be a viable starter at second base, add an outfield bat would be a smart move for the Kansas City Royals.

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