KC Royals: Are Merrifield, Eibner, And Orlando For Real?

3) Paulo Orlando

Paulo Orlando is hitting much better as a second year player for the KC Royals, slashing an outstanding .353/.380/.460 in 159 at bats in 2016. Though defensive metrics rated Orlando a plus defender, this season he’s already -5.0 runs below average. Overall, however, his strong bat has made him appear to be a viable starting outfielder.

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However, Orlando BABIP is an outrageous .452 which is in no way sustainable. His hard hit rate is nothing special at 23.9%, which is around seven percent lower than his 31.4% hard hit rate in 2015. Given Orlando’s much better results in 2016 despite making softer contact suggests Orlando isn’t going to continue his current success.

The other main difference I see in Orlando’s Fangraphs.com data is that he’s swinging more aggressively. His swing rate is up 4% from 53.0% in 2015 to 57.5% in 2016. He’s swinging more often at both pitches in and out of the strike zone. And his on base percentage is a much better .380 over his substandard .269 in 2015.

However, that OBP improvement doesn’t look long-term given his outrageously high BABIP. His walk rate remains an exceptionally low 2.5%, which is only slightly better than his 2.0% walk rate in 2015.

Give this data, I’m pretty confident that Orlando’s recent performance is a mirage. Enjoy it while it lasts KC Royals fans, but I doubt he’ll keep it up for much longer.

Next: Jon Jay IS A Possible Trade Target For Royals

If my analysis is correct, Dayton Moore would be wise to explore outfield options on the trade market. While I believe Whit Merrifield will continue to be a viable starter at second base, add an outfield bat would be a smart move for the Kansas City Royals.