2 KC Royals' targets listed as 'free agents most likely to be overpaid' this winter

The Kansas City Royals have already made a number of important moves this offseason. On November 3, the team re-signed veteran Michael Wacha to a three-year, $51 million contract with a fourth-year option, and just under three weeks later, they traded starter Brady Singer to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for second baseman Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer.

Still, the Royals have work to do before Opening Day of the 2025 season — but they'll need to be careful which free agents they target to address holes in their roster.

On November 27, Bleacher Report's Tim Kelly listed the "top MLB free agents most likely to be overpaid this offseason," and two players potential targets of the Royals — Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar — were featured.

The outfield is still a problem area for the Royals, and Santander and Profar have both been floated as players the team could target this winter. So is either free agent a fit, or just a far-too-expensive risk?

Should the KC Royals consider signing Anthony Santander?

At 30 years old, Santander likely still has a number of good years ahead of him in MLB — but as Kelly explained, that's not necessarily the problem.

"Anthony Santander isn't on this list because we believe he's not going to be a productive player moving forward," Kelly wrote. "But it feels unlikely he'll ever match his 2024 campaign in terms of power output, and there's not a ton of margin for error with him."

In 2024, Santander slashed .235/.308/.506 with a career-best 44 home runs and 102 RBI in 595 at-bats, and recorded a 134 OPS+. His value obviously comes from his power at the plate, and as he proved this season, he has a lot of it — but that doesn't mean there isn't cause for concern.

The right fielder's career .246 batting average and .307 OBP are less than stellar, meaning that other than slugging big homers, he doesn't have much consistency anywhere else. The 58 walks he drew in 2024 were the most of his eight-season MLB career, and that still only puts him in the 60th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. The 2024 season was also the first time Santander has posted an OPS north of .800 in his career (other than the pandemic-shortened 2020 season), which is shocking for a player who goes yard as often as he does, but he's obviously pulled down by his inability to get on base.

Unless he can find other ways to get on base, any team that signs Santander will be betting on his power aging well into his 30s, which is a risky move at the best of times.

Santander's fielding also leaves plenty to be desired. His -2 Outs Above Average (OAA) this year marked him distinctly below average, with an 89% success rate in 298 attempts in right field.

Still, Sportrac has projected Santander will secure a five-year, $88.7 million deal this offseason, while B/R has projected a five-year, $101 million contract. On top of that, he rejected a qualifying offer from the Orioles at the end of the season, so any team that signs him this winter will have to pay a penalty in draft compensation.

On November 4, the MLB Trade Rumors team predicted Santander would garner plenty of interest this winter, naming the Royals as a landing spot that made "some sense." If Kansas City are smart, they'll stay far away from overspending on an expensive slugger who doesn't fit their needs.

Is Jurickson Profar a fit for the KC Royals?

The reason why Profar would be overpaid in free agency this offseason is obvious — recency bias is exponentially inflating his value.

In 2024 with the San Diego Padres, the 31-year-old had the best offensive season of his career, slashing .280/.380/.459 with a career-best 24 home runs and 85 RBI in 564 at-bats. His 134 OPS+ placed him 34% above league-average, and he received his first All-Star selection and Silver Slugger Award for his work.

So why is that concerning?

In 11 major league seasons, Profar's 2024 offensive stats weren't just the best he's posted — they showed a very significant and remarkable improvement. While his batting average was .280 this year, his career-average is just .245, and he's recorded multiple seasons under .230.

Now maybe Profar just took 11 years to finally find his strength at the plate, and the 2024 season marks his breakout as a fierce and consistent batter — or maybe this season was a one-off fluke and he'll never put up numbers like that again. Unfortunately, the second option is a lot more likely.

His impressive offensive stats in 2024 are also drawing attention away from his underwhelming fielding. Profar ranked a disappointing 242nd out of 274 qualified fielders in OAA at -7, with a success rate of 85% in 285 attempts in left field, and an arm value in just the 37th percentile.

On November 25, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand named Profar as a "free agent who could make sense" for the Royals to sign this winter — but with all considered, is he really a good fit?

Sportrac projects that Profar will land a 2-year, $25.8 million deal out of free agency this winter, and B/R has been even more generous, projecting a two-year, $34 million deal with a $17 million club option for 2027. Both predictions would see an extreme pay increase from the contract Profar had with the Padres in 2024, with which he earned $1 million guaranteed with $1.5 million in incentives.

Considering the huge variations in his stats over the last few years, signing Profar would be a very risky move. He's likely to regress again in 2025, and doesn't have the defensive stats to support any unreliability in his offense. Especially considering his inflated value on the market, the Royals should stay well away from any expensive contract with Profar.