What could a potential trade for KC Royals' Seth Lugo look like?

Seth Lugo has meant a lot to the Kansas City Royals. He's almost had a James Shields-like impact on this team.

The year before Lugo arrived, this was a 56-win baseball team. One year later, Lugo led the Royals to 86 wins. He brought instant credibility to the Royals staff en route to finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting behind Tarik Skubal.

Lugo is in the midst of another stellar season for the Royals, with a 2.94 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 107 innings. In his last 10 starts, he's gone at least six innings in six of them. He's the Royals' most reliable pitcher with Cole Ragan on the IL most of the year.

The Royals love him, but with his contract ending this year, it's unclear if the Royals will be able to bring him back.

Lugo has the choice to opt into a player option for $15 million per year in 2026, or he can choose to be a free agent. A pitcher of Lugo's caliber can make much more than $15 million on the open market.

So the Royals may have to trade the 35-year-old Lugo at the deadline to try and get something for him, instead of losing him for nothing. The Royals need young position players with years of control, preferably outfielders. What could and should a deal involving Seth Lugo look like for the Royals?

What could a trade for KC Royals Seth Lugo look like?

To properly predict the type of value Seth Lugo could bring back for the Royals, we need to look at a recent trade for a pitcher of similar skill and age.

A notable example from a year ago is the trade that sent starting pitcher Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers at the deadline. The Tigers received the Dodgers' No. 8 prospect (Thayron Liranzo, who is now the Tigers' fifth-ranked prospect) and No. 22 prospect (Trey Sweeney, who is on the major league team) in return.

Flaherty had a 2.95 ERA with 133 strikeouts at the time of the trade, but he was also considerably younger than Lugo at 28 years old.

The Royals should be working from a position of strength since Lugo is arguably the best starting pitcher available for trade. Even at his advanced age, he continues to perform at an elite level.

Trading Lugo would essentially be punting on being competitive in 2025, so the Royals would expect a sizable haul to move on from Lugo.

What could Lugo's top suitors offer the KC Royals?

Chicago Cubs

This is the ideal spot for Lugo to land for several reasons. First, the Cubs need starting pitching. Their rotation has been fine this year, but they could use a boost from a guy like Lugo.

Second, they have a rowdy and demanding fan base that is hungry to return to October.

Third, the Cubs have a bunch of prospects that the Royals should be interested in.

The Cubs have several top 30 prospects that could be playing in the big leagues, but are being blocked by the Cubs.

No. 1 prospect, OF Owen Cassie (.278/.386/.575 in Triple-A) and No. 4 prospect, Kevin Alcantara (.267/.348/.462 in Triple-A) are the top names in their system that KC should be targeting.

Both are power threats who provide tremendous upside and would be immediate upgrades for the Royals.

Los Angeles Dodgers

"You can never have enough pitching" should be the Dodgers' team mantra. They've suffered injuries to Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki, so they will be looking to add an arm to strengthen their hold on the NL.

The Dodgers have a lot of hitting prospects, but none that are ready for the MLB right now, or even next year.

No. 6 prospect, OF Mike Sirota (.316/.458/.556 at High-A) interests me the most in their system, but he's only at the High-A level right now and has an ETA to join the big leagues in 2027. No 3 prospect, SS/3B Alex Freeland is more MLB-ready right now, but doesn't profile in the outfield.

New York Mets

The Mets love to make a splash, and there’s been smoke around them acquiring Lugo, who previously played for them from 2017 to 2022.

The Mets starting pitching ranks 5th in ERA, but are 23rd in innings pitched and tied for 17th in WHIP.

They recently activated Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea from the IL, so the immediate need for the Mets isn't necessarily there. However, I would never count the Mets out to make an impact at the deadline. Lugo would provide stability and someone who can eat innings, something all playoff teams can use.

The Mets have several intriguing prospects including their top prospect SS/OF Jett Williams (.291/.399/.495 with eight home runs at Double-A), No. 3 prospect, OF Carson Benge (.308/.427/.486 with six home runs between High-A and Double-A), No. 6 prospect, 1B/OF Ryan Clifford (.228/.348/.456 with 17 home runs in Double-A), and No. 9 prospect, OF Drew Gilbert (.248/.352/.442 with 12 home runs between Single-A and Triple-A).

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto leads its division, but the Yankees are just three games back, and their rotation hasn't been good, ranking 25th in ERA (4.53).

Getting Max Scherzer back from the IL will be a much-needed boost to the Blue Jays' rotation, but they could opt to find an upgrade to keep the Sox and the Yanks at bay.

The Jays' farm system isn't as strong as the Cubs' or the Dodgers', but 2B/3B Orelvis Martinez (.192/.287/.372 at Triple-A) is their No. 3 prospect and has MLB experience. No. 6 prospect, SS Josh Kasevich (.296/.348/.385 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024) was a 2nd-round pick in 2022 and has strong contact and defensive ability, although light in the power department (10 home runs in 247 career Minor League games).

Both players come with major questions, as Martinez was popped for performance-enhancing substances and served an 80-game suspension. Kasevich started the season on the IL and is making his way back with a rehab assignment in Single-A.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are 52-47 on the season and are 5-5 in their last 10 games. They're 1.5 games back of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Justin Verlander has been a disaster lately, and the Giants could use another reliable arm to pair with Logan Wedd and Robbie Ray.

The Giants' system includes some nice prospects, although only one (No.1 prospect, 1B Bryce Eldridge) is inside the top 100. Still, they have good baseball players inside the farm, but most are still a few years away from making an impact.

The Royals need offense, but I could see them having interest in No. 2 prospect, LHP Carson Whisenhunt. He was popped for performance-enhancing drugs his junior year of college but was taken by the Giants in the 2nd round in 2022.

According to MLB.com, Whisenhunt showcases arguably the best changeup in the Minors with a 49% chase rate.

If the Royals are okay with waiting, they could show interest in their No. 5 prospect, OF Dakota Jordan (.302/.373/.470 with 10 home runs at Single-A) or No. 8 prospect, OF Bo Davidson (.309/.412/.507 with 10 home runs at High-A).