This pitcher's return to form could be a game-changer for the Royals in 2026

Talk proclaiming Cole Ragans as the ace of the Kansas City Royals began during the impressive half-season he put together for the club in 2023 and picked up a full head of steam as he won 11 games and posted a nice 3.14 ERA to help lead the club back to the playoffs the following season.

But despite how good Ragans was in 2024, the fact of the matter is this — no Royals' starter was better that year than Seth Lugo.

Stats prove the point. Pitching in his first season with the Royals and working out of a rotation regularly for just the second time since starting 18 times for the 2017 Mets, Lugo went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA. His career-high 33 starts tied for the major league lead, and he also established career bests in wins, strikeouts (181), and innings pitched (206.2). Lugo also earned his first All-Star berth and finished as the runner-up to Tarik Skubal in AL Cy Young voting that year.

The 2025 season, however, was different. As the Royals fell short of postseason play, Lugo went only 8-7 with a pedestrian 4.05 ERA in 26 starts. That performance would have warranted praise if recorded during Kansas City's disastrous, 100-plus-loss 2022 and 2023 seasons, but proved sorely disappointing in 2025.

Now, Kansas City needs a rebound effort from Lugo next season. Without a return to the form he displayed in 2024 (or close to it), they might find themselves out in the cold when it's time for October baseball.

A bounce-back season by Seth Lugo could be a game-changer for the Royals

At least on paper and via potential, Kansas City will boast one of the best rotations in the majors when spring training camps open in February.

The current 40-man roster bulges with good rotation pieces who could shine in 2026, including Lugo, Ragans, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek (whose 1.91 ERA in five starts can't be overlooked), and perhaps even Ben Kudrna and Steven Zobac.

But the Royals will probably need to sacrifice at least part of that solid inventory of starters if they still plan to add the kind of big bat they need. If that happens, Lugo recapturing his 2024 form — or approaching it — will be a key to the Royals returning to the playoffs. Eight wins may not be enough should the club lose any of its top starters.

Can Lugo do it? Yes, but he'll have to stay healthy. Harming his 2025 effort were the finger injury that sidelined him for two weeks in May (he had a 3.02 ERA when placed on the injured list) and the back strain that ended his season in early September. Missing almost a month and a half certainly had much to do with his diminished numbers.

If he stays away from the IL, Lugo should be well-situated for a good season. Despite those 2025 injuries, his eight wins still tied him with Bubic and reliever Lucas Erceg for third-most on the club, his 12 quality starts ranked behind only Wacha's 13, and his 2.67 pre-All-Star Break ERA is tough to discount. His eclectic 10-pitch, batter-confusing repertoire won't hurt.

Lugo, then, enters 2026 with a lot riding on his talented right arm ... and a chance to make a huge difference for the Royals.